Is traditional Swiss cheese disappearing? Market Report 19-5-23
Protein concentrates continue to fall, spot milk price and milk fat rising, cheese and skimmed milk powder slightly rising.
After the long sideways movement, a new dynamic is noticeable at the moment. Milk fat and the spot milk price were able to break away from their lows. Cheese and milk powder are following this upward movement somewhat hesitantly. The added value of protein concentrates is still high and slowly approaching cheese and skimmed milk powder.
Prices for Q3 have not yet been communicated in a big way, manufacturers are taking a wait-and-see approach as they do not want to give away margins.
To the question: Is traditional Swiss cheese disappearing?
Please also read our report:
We note that the production of milk powder has been steadily increasing since the low point. This year, this growth has reached a new dimension with +16%. This development can be explained by the ongoing increase in subsidies for milk powder. These subsidies are now no longer distributed directly by the government, but by the branch organisation for milk and are thus largely removed from political control.
It is important to be aware of the consequences. This policy leads to milk being withdrawn from cheese dairies and consequently to a decrease in cheese production. We are already seeing overcapacity in cheese production and more and more village cheese dairies are struggling to survive.
Village cheese dairies are important for the quality of traditional Swiss cheeses; they process the milk quickly without long transport routes.
Our recommendation for Q3:
Based on the latest developments, we are raising our forecast slightly. We expect a slight price increase of +4% - +8% for Q3 (previously +2% - +4%). Accordingly, we renew our recommendation. Those who still have storage capacity should buy on the spot market today and store the commodity for Q3.
We are present at the following fairs:
- PLMA, Amsterdam 23/24 May 2023 (as visitor).
- Symposium Feines Essen und Trinken, Munich 15/16 June 2023 (as co-exhibitor at Dicke Food)
- International Cheese Award, Stafford GB, 30.6; 1.7. 2023 (as participant)
- Anuga, Cologne 7 - 11 October 2023 (as co-exhibitor with Dicke Food)
Kind regards, Affineur Walo
