Milk Market: What comes after organic? Market Analysis from 7-6-24
Cheese and Feed Costs slightly Increasing; Spot Milk Price, Milk Fat, Skim Milk Powder, and Protein Concentrates stable.
The recently observed price increases, particularly for milk fat, have taken a pause. Other prices have also risen only slightly. This suggests that the market in recent weeks may have been driven more by psychological factors than by fundamental data. The latter still support price increases, as there is no overproduction, but there is also no acute shortage.
The “Kielerbörsen” milk price for May has been published and is 2.6% above the April value, roughly at the level of March. The future for June is even more optimistic with an increase of 5.5%.
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) event 357 resulted in a 1.7% increase in the GDT index, settling at an average index price of US$3,824 per tonne. On this occasion, all product categories saw price increases, apart from lactose, which eased by 1.9%. The largest price increase was observed in skim milk powder, followed by whole milk powder. Milk fat and cheese increased only slightly.
What Does the Situation in Switzerland look like?
- The price war for Emmental cheese seems to be intensifying.
- The Swiss franc is gaining strength again.
- The wet weather is also a challenge for farmers in Switzerland.
Regarding the Question: What Comes After Organic?
In the food industry, there are various trends, from organic to vegan and high protein. What can we expect next?
A particularly interesting and long-observed trend is the "low-intervention" approach. Especially in wine, this trend has already reached near-mainstream status in the English-speaking world. The increasing discussions about the consumption of raw milk, naturally fermented products, and sourdough bread shows that a shift in thinking is also taking place in other food areas.
Our Forecast for Q3 and Q4:
The developments of the past few weeks confirm our assumption that we have seen the lowest prices. We expect further price increases for Q3.
Predicting the developments for Q4 is still difficult. The current weather situation with flooding in half of Europe is likely to dampen milk production, and it is probable that the rising prices will continue.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Summer Fancy Food New York, from 23 to 24 June 2024, in partnership with World's Best Cheese
- International Cheese Award, on 27 June 2024
- Sial Paris, from 19 to 23 October 2024, where we'll have our own booth
- Marca Bologna, from 15 to 16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food Show Las Vegas, from 19 to 21 January 2025, along with World's Best Cheese
- Sirha Lyon, from 23 to 27 January 2025
- Tutto Food, Milano, 5 – 8 Mai 2025
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20. & 21. Mai 2025
- Le Mondial du Fromage et des Produits Laitiers in Tours (France), from 14 to 16 September 2025
Best Wishes, Affineur Walo
