Milk Market: Trend Reversal? Market Analysis as of 6 September 2024
Protein concentrates and milk fat slightly declining; skimmed milk powder, cheese, and spot milk rising.
Review and Current Situation
After prices surged in August, the markets have calmed down in the first week of September. Some buyers are hopeful that this represents a trend reversal.
On 3 September 2024, the GDT index fell slightly by 0.4%. Whole milk powder, butter, and lactose saw declines, while skimmed milk powder and cheese increased.
Situation in Switzerland
The situation in Switzerland remains tense: there is an oversupply of milk and butter, and the currency remains strong.
It is not only the milk market that suffers but also the machinery and watch industries. While the former is shifting production abroad, this is more challenging for watches and milk. Switzerland hopes for a currency adjustment from the National Bank, which has some leeway with an inflation rate of 1%.
Economically, Switzerland has been on shaky ground since the 2009 financial crisis. The GDP growth is primarily supported by immigration, while the finance, machinery, and partially the food industries are shrinking or moving abroad—an unsustainable development that can only be corrected with new free trade agreements.
Trend Reversal?
Clearly not. The current market calm is just a short breather. Prices will continue to rise until December. After that, a decline is certain, but the question is when.
Forecast for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
Q4 2024:
- Milk fat prices will continue to rise, with possible short-term corrections.
- Protein prices will moderately increase.
Q1 2025:
- Due to limited production increases, we expect high prices to continue in Q1 2025.
- Price reductions are not expected before March onwards.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Sial, Paris, 19–23 October 2024, stand 7 B 002
- Marca, Bologna, 15–16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food, Las Vegas, 19–21 January 2025, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha, Lyon, 23–27 January 2025
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 September 2025
Best Wishes, Affineur Walo
