Milk Market: Summer Slump? Market Analysis from 21 June 2024
Decline in milk fat and skimmed milk powder, feed costs falling, stable cheese and protein concentrates, slight increase in spot milk price.
The prices for milk fat and skimmed milk powder continue to decline, while the spot milk price shows a slight upward trend. Futures for the Kiel milk price index also show a slight decline. The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) has registered its first drop since March.
Situation in Switzerland:
- Cheese Sales: Sales of AOP cheeses have not yet recovered.
- Silage free Milk: Prices remain under pressure.
- Summer Forecast: Unlike previous years, no milk shortage is expected this summer.
- Currency Effects: The Swiss franc has strengthened following the European elections. The Swiss National Bank has lowered the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%, leading to a slight weakening of the franc.
- Butter Market: Butter stockpiles are increasing, and C-milk is expected in autumn.
Will There be a Summer Slump in the Milk Market?
Currently, the milk market is following negative stock market trends. There is significant uncertainty since the European elections, which is further intensified by the upcoming elections in France. The political climate remains unstable, with a crucial decision expected on 7 July.
Projections for Q3 and Q4:
Third Quarter:
Expectations for above-average prices have moderated. Nonetheless, a price increase is anticipated in the summer. However, if a political vacuum in Europe leads to negative sentiment, this could negatively affect the milk market.
Fourth Quarter: Predictions remain challenging:
- Milk Fat A limited availability is expected.
- Skimmed Milk Powder: Demand is anticipated to remain weak.
High prices may lead to milk fat being increasingly replaced by vegetable fats, potentially decreasing butter demand and destabilising the entire market.
In summary, the milk market remains volatile due to political and economic uncertainties. Continuous monitoring and adjustments to market developments are crucial.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Summer Fancy Food New York, from 23 to 24 June 2024, in partnership with World's Best Cheese
- International Cheese Award, on 27 June 2024
- Sial Paris, from 19 to 23 October 2024, where we'll have our own booth
- Marca Bologna, from 15 to 16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food Show Las Vegas, from 19 to 21 January 2025, along with World's Best Cheese
- Sirha Lyon, from 23 to 27 January 2025
- Tutto Food, Milano, 5 – 8 Mai 2025
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20. & 21. Mai 2025
- Le Mondial du Fromage et des Produits Laitiers in Tours (France), from 14 to 16 September 2025
Best Wishes, Affineur Walo
