Milk market: Milk shortage in autumn? Market analysis from 2 August 2024
Feed costs falling slightly, protein concentrates stable, milk fat, skimmed milk powder and spot milk rising.
Review and current situation
- Milk fat : The upward trend continues.
- Protein: Prices have stabilised.
- Cheese market: The market has calmed down and is showing a slight upward trend.
- China:
- Milk production has increased sharply. The level of self-sufficiency rose from 75% to 85%, which led to an 18-month decline in prices. As feed often has to be imported from the USA or Europe, the profitability of Chinese dairy farmers is poor.
- Market for infant milk powder in China: Declining due to:
1. increased domestic production.
2. declining birth rate.
3. trend towards natural breastfeeding.
- Forecast: The Dutch Rabobank expects that China will soon become an exporter of dairy products, which will result in significant market changes.
Situation in Switzerland
- Exchange rate: The Swiss franc gains strength with every crisis.
- AOP cheeses: Stocks are overflowing and very low prices for various AOP cheeses (Emmentaler, Gruyere) are being reported again.
Milk shortage in autumn?
The steadily rising prices indicate weak production of skimmed milk powder. This situation will worsen as the milk supply decreases in the autumn.
Conclusion:
If milk fat prices continue to rise and demand for cheese remains good, significant cheese price increases of 20% to 30% are possible.
Forecast for Q3 and Q4
- Price trend in Q3: Slight price increases, especially for fat, mozzarella, cheddar and Emmental.
- Milk availability in Europe appears to be becoming tighter in view of rising fat prices. We expect prices to continue to rise in the fourth quarter, particularly for milk fat and proteins.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Sial, Paris, 19–23 October 2024, stand 7 B 002
- Marca, Bologna, 15–16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food, Las Vegas, 19–21 January 2025, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha, Lyon, 23–27 January 2025
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 September 2025
Best Wishes, Affineur Walo