Milk market: How great is the pressure to sell? Market analysis from 26.1.2024
Spot milk up slightly, milk fat down, cheese down slightly, protein concentrates and milk powder stable.
Demand remains weak; the trend remains negative, with Gouda in particular falling below the price of Cagliata for the first time in a long time. The only ray of hope is the spot milk price, which is still rising slightly.
And in Switzerland?
Swiss AOP cheeses are sticking to their high price strategy, accepting ongoing losses in market share, and cutting back on production. Nevertheless, marketers have an excess supply and margins are continuing to erode.
How great is the pressure to sell?
The trend has been slightly negative for 3-4 weeks, and the oversupply seems to be coming mainly from the north, as in 2023. The question is how great the selling pressure will be. Will we see prices like 2023, with mozzarella at €2.30?
Our forecast for Q1:
We assume that prices will continue to erode slightly until the end of March. After that, higher production will be met with subdued demand and price erosion could accelerate.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Salon du Fromage, Paris, 25-27 February 2024, with our own stand
- Cibus Parma, 7-10 May 2024
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 28 & 29 May 2024
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 23-24 June 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- International Cheese Award, 27 June 2024
- Sial, Paris, 19-23 October 2024, with our own stand
- Marca Bologna, 15-16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food Show, Las Vegas, 19-21 January 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha Lyon, 23-27 January 2024
Best regards,
Affineur Walo
