Milk Market: In free 9fall? Market Analysis from 13 December 2024
Protein concentrates (casein) and skimmed milk powder remain stable, while spot milk prices, milk fat, and cheese are experiencing a significant drop.
Overview and Current Situation
We are on the brink of a crisis in the milk market! In recent weeks, we have witnessed a dramatic decline in prices for milk fat, mozzarella, and spot milk—resulting in a staggering loss of over 10% in just four weeks! With the spot milk price in France already plummeting to a concerning CHF 0.45, we must ask ourselves: Where will this all ends?
Situation in Switzerland
In Switzerland, the effects of the special tax are being felt (see our newsletter from 29-11-24). We are also observing that export aids are being granted to selected cooperatives in the cheese sector, meaning prices are falling here as well.
But that’s not all! The exchange rate is working against us: the Swiss franc is steadily rising, putting enormous pressure on the entire export industry and domestic consumption. More and more consumers are turning to attractive offers from neighbouring countries. This trend is exacerbated by the special taxes on export subsidies. If the Swiss retail trade tolerates this situation, nothing will change!
The stock levels of cheese made from raw milk remain tight, with a relaxation not expected before autumn 2025.
Milk Market: The Hard Truth—The Milk Market is in Free Fall!
The goal is to maintain stability in milk prices. However, it seems that traders have other plans. Who will ultimately prevail: the traders or the producers?
Forecast for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
- Q4 2024: A climate of sell-off prevails.
- Q1 2025: Despite the manufacturers' vigorous efforts to stave off larger price reductions, it remains uncertain how long they can withstand the pressure. Demand and production volumes will be crucial in determining the future price developments.
The announced trade policy of the USA and potential tariffs could further destabilise the market and trigger sudden price fluctuations.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Marca, Bologna, 15–16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food, Las Vegas, 19–21 January 2025, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha, Lyon, 23–27 January 2025
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 septembre 2025
- Anuga, Köln 4.10 – 8.10.2025
Stay informed and enjoy the exquisite Swiss flower meadow cheese with raw milk! Tastes good, is healthy and calming.
Best wishes, Affineur Walo
