Milk Market: Dark clouds from China? Market Analysis from 11th October 2024
Milk fat, skimmed milk powder, spot milk prices, and protein concentrate (casein) are all falling, while cheese prices show a slight mixed decline.
Review and Current Situation
Welcome to the third week of price reductions in the dairy sector! The adjustment in milk fat prices is not an isolated incident – the market is currently volatile. The decline in prices for mozzarella and gouda suggests that some traders may have been overly optimistic in their purchases and are now realising their first losses. While there is currently no price pressure among EU producers, the situation in Switzerland has worsened, with low-quality cagliata still being offered at rock-bottom prices.
Situation in Switzerland
In Switzerland, there is an overabundance of milk, which consistently leads to low prices. However, be warned: the quality of the cheese on offer is often not worth mentioning. At the same time, stockholding for raw milk cheeses remains tight, as many dairies have hesitated to increase production due to high milk prices.
Dark Clouds from China?
The EU is planning to impose tariffs on electric cars from China, and China is considering applying similar measures to European dairy products. Such trade wars often do not achieve the desired results and instead hinder growth on both sides. A tariff on EU dairy products would plunge the European dairy industry into a valley of tears.
Forecast for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
- Q4 2024
Despite low stock levels and stable milk production, we do not expect any price increases in the next nine months. The trend indicates falling milk fat prices and moderately declining prices for protein and cheese.
- Q1 2025:
The start of the year will remain quiet, but drastic price cuts could emerge from March onwards, potentially exacerbated by any tariffs that may come into effect.
Next week we will be at SIAL, and the newsletter will be on hold until 1st November 2024.
**Visit us at SIAL!**
Don't miss the opportunity to talk with us about the latest developments in the dairy market.
Where? Hall 7, Stand B002 – the first stand on the left from the main entrance.
When? From 19th to 23rd October 2024.
Best regards, Affineur Walo
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Sial, Paris, 19–23 October 2024, stand 7 B 002
- Marca, Bologna, 15–16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food, Las Vegas, 19–21 January 2025, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha, Lyon, 23–27 January 2025
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 September 2025
