Milk Market: Crisis in Switzerland? Market Analysis from 13 September 2024
Protein Concentrates Slightly Falling, Whey Milk Stable, Milk Fat, Skimmed Milk Powder and Cheese Rising, Swiss Cheese in Chaos!
Review and Current Situation
This week, the price surge for milk fat continues after stabilising last week. Kiel Dairy Market Price rose from €0.458 in July to €0.487 in August, driven solely by the higher milk fat price. Since January, milk fat prices have increased from €0.252 to €0.325, while protein value has decreased from €0.19 to €0.174.
Situation in Switzerland
An Uncontrolled Deterioration?
Switzerland is heading unimpeded into a crisis: the butter surplus is growing, milk prices remain high, and the strong Franc is squeezing exports. A free market would force milk prices down, but politically fixed prices prevent this.
Nevertheless, cheap Swiss skimmed cheese is flooding the markets. Mostly inferior, high in water, and low in protein, this cheese is unsuitable for both Mozzarella production and grating.
Notable Development at Hochdorf Dairy
An interesting development concerns the fourth-largest dairy, Hochdorf: The Italian major shareholder Newlat has made a new bid for the operational segment, which is about 10 million Francs higher than the offer from AS Equity Partners. Hochdorf's management rejects it, as Newlat intends to replace the leadership team, while AS Equity Partners wants to retain the current management. The decision will be made at the General Meeting on 20 September, or will it fall to the creditors' meeting following bankruptcy, which may lead to liability claims? The situation remains tense.
Crisis in Switzerland?
Swift and unpopular decisions are needed, or the downward spiral will continue.
Forecast for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
Q4 2024
- Rising milk fat prices, possibly with short corrections.
- Moderate increases in protein prices.
Q1 2025
- High prices due to limited production increases and empty inventories.
- No price reductions expected before March 2025.We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Sial, Paris, 19–23 October 2024, stand 7 B 002
- Marca, Bologna, 15–16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food, Las Vegas, 19–21 January 2025, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha, Lyon, 23–27 January 2025
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 September 2025
Best Wishes, Affineur Walo
