Milk Market: Is Cheese Made from Milk? Market Analysis for October 2024
Milk fat and spot milk prices are rising, with skimmed milk powder on a slight upswing, while cheese and protein concentrates are in decline.
Retrospective and Current Situation
The last two weeks have been consumed by SIAL in Paris, which is why there was no newsletter.
In October, nearly all prices experienced declines, with the sole exception of milk fat reaching new heights – a glimmer of hope on the dairy horizon. But let’s be honest: if cheese truly were made from milk, then cheese prices would also rise with increasing milk prices. In the Netherlands, there are still sufficient quantities of Gouda and mozzarella available, whereas Germany and Poland are facing dwindling stock levels – and consequently higher prices. Apparently, there's some new secret ingredient for cheese being discovered somewhere in the Netherlands.
SIAL 2024
Our stand at the main entrance of Hall 7 was well attended – hurrah for new potential customers! Compared to Anuga, the atmosphere and the variety of cheese specialties were noticeably better, while bags of skimmed milk powder were in shorter supply.
The only downside? The logistics. The fair is so large that one should plan more time for the journey than for the cheese exhibits themselves. And the hotel prices? Who would have thought they would suddenly skyrocket during the fair week – tripling in price near SIAL. The situation is even worse at Anuga, where prices soar fivefold in and around Cologne.
Situation in Switzerland
In Switzerland, the situation remains unchanged: there is an oversupply of milk and consistently low prices. However, be wary – the quality of the cheese offerings is often rather… mediocre.
Simultaneously, the stock levels for raw milk cheeses remain tight, as many dairies have hesitated to increase production in light of high milk prices.
Is Cheese Made from Milk?
The food regulations clearly state: cheese is made from milk – otherwise, it is not cheese! The current detachment of cheese prices from milk prices can only be temporary.
Forecast for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
- Q4 2024:
We expect stable to rising cheese prices and also for proteins. There may be slight corrections in milk fat – but who really knows?
- Q1 2025;
The start of the year is likely to be characterised by rising prices, but from March onwards, we could see price reductions, which may dramatically escalate due to potential tariffs from China.
Best regards, Affineur Walo
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Marca, Bologna, 15–16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food, Las Vegas, 19–21 January 2025, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha, Lyon, 23–27 January 2025
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 Septembre 2025
- Anuga, Köln 4.10 – 8.10.2025
Best Wishes, Affineur Walo
