Milk Market: Chaos? Market Analysis from 22 November 2024
Milk fat prices are rising, while skimmed milk powder, spot milk prices, and protein concentrates (casein) show a slight upward trend. In contrast, cheese prices are experiencing a slight decline.

Review and Current Situation
Milk fat is approaching €11, and other commodities are slowly following suit; only cheese prices are an exception this week, likely due to some traders needing to clear their stocks.
The business environment is calm, with many buyers having stocked their inventory until mid-January while awaiting lower prices in the first quarter. As we pointed out last week, we do not believe this is the right strategy.
Situation in Switzerland
In Switzerland, measures have been implemented to relieve pressure on the fat market, while the milk price remains stable at CHF 0.82. The market is currently quiet, but concerning signs are on the horizon. The Swiss franc is gaining strength, and we would not be surprised if it rises by another 5% next year, due to a generally weak economy in Europe, aligned with political factors. The same applies for the USD, which is expected to weaken as the new president tries to bolster the economy through a weaker currency.
Inventory levels for raw milk cheeses remain tight, a situation that is unlikely to improve until at least autumn 2025.
Milk Market: Chaos?
In 2024, the price of milk fat experienced a significant rise, influenced by various factors:
- The demand for skimmed milk powder was weak, with prices remaining low.
- The food industry has demanded a lot of protein, primarily concentrated whey proteins, which have also seen dramatic price increases.
- The demand for cheese has been stable, and due to high whey protein prices, cheese production remains attractive, causing cheese prices to stay moderate.
- Milk production is low due to a declining dairy herd and the impact of bluetongue disease.
What Does the Future Hold?
- In the short term, China and Southeast Asia have a pressing need to replenish their stocks of skimmed and full milk powder.
- The demand for whey protein concentrates will typically be weak at the beginning of the year.
- Spot milk prices and the payout prices from dairies are around €0.60, which is quite high (with this milk, no €4 cheese can be produced).
- The dairy herd will only see a slow increase, and if environmental regulations are enforced, it may remain relatively stable.
Forecast for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
- Q4 2024: We expect stable to rising prices for cheese and proteins; limited production of butter and skimmed milk powder will lead to declining stock levels. Buyers on the spot market should prepare for high prices.
- Q1 2025: Based on the aforementioned factors, we expect higher prices for cheese, as well as for skimmed and full milk powders. The market for milk fat is expected to normalise.
In the long term, we anticipate that protein prices will converge towards those of milk fat. This is due to the increasing emphasis on protein in diets and the expected continued minimisation of the role of fat.
The disruptive political style of the new US president poses potential risks, whose effects are difficult to predict. Stay vigilant and flexible!
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Marca, Bologna, 15–16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food, Las Vegas, 19–21 January 2025, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha, Lyon, 23–27 January 2025
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 septembre 2025
- Anuga, Köln 4.10 – 8.10.2025
Stay informed and enjoy raw milk cheese!
Best Wishes, Affineur Walo
ffineur Walo