Market Report 5-5-23; How big is the price increase in Q3?
Protein concentrates continue to fall, spot milk price remains at the low point, cheese and skimmed milk powder stable.
Milk fat recovered after last week's loss. Demand for cheese and skimmed milk powder is still weak. Nevertheless, prices have stabilised for the most part. Emmental prices are slowly decreasing, and the value added is approaching that of Gouda. For mozzarella, we currently have lower value added and prices are slowly rising.
The Kiel commodity value in April is at € 0.36 and has almost halved in 1 year. Contract milk prices are slowly approaching this value.
The Global Dairy Trade on 2.5.23 also recorded slightly rising prices with increasing volumes. The end of Ramadan is probably being felt here.
And in Switzerland?
Cheese exports in March continued to decline. Gruyere is the most affected at the moment.
The exchange rate is a cause for concern now, the banking crisis in the USA and the hesitant interest rate hikes in Europe and the USA are strengthening the Swiss franc. This is even though Switzerland's second largest bank also had to be bailed out with CHF 250 billion and many investors have lost a massive amount of money.
To the question: How strongly will prices rise in Q3?
Prices have stabilised further, and producers are trying to increase prices for Q3. At the moment, however, buyers and producers do not seem to have found each other yet. We expect a maximum of moderate price increases of 2 - 4 %.
Our recommendation for Q3:
We stick to our recommendation. Those who still have storage capacity should buy on the spot market today and store the goods themselves for Q3.
We are present at the following fairs:
- Tutto Food, Milano 8 -11 May 2023 (as visitor).
- PLMA, Amsterdam 23/24 May 2023 (as visitor)
- Symposium Feines Essen und Trinken, Munich 15/16 June 2023 (as co-exhibitor at Dicke Food)
- International Cheese Award, Stafford GB, 30.6; 1.7. 2023 (as participant)
- Anuga, Cologne 7 - 11 October 2023 (as co-exhibitor with Dicke Food)
Kind regards, Affineur Walo
Proteinkonzentrate weiter sinkend, Spot-Milchpreis verharrt auf dem Tiefpunkt, Käse und Mager-Milchpulver stabil.