Market Report 28-4-23; Why did milk fat crash?
Milk fat crashed, spot milk price at new low, cheese and skimmed milk powder stable, protein concentrates still falling.
Milk volumes continue to rise, the maximum has not yet been reached. Soon there could be the famous drop too much. Milk fat crashed with -10% last week. Demand for cheese and skimmed milk powder is still weak. Nevertheless, prices have stabilised for the most part.
World market demand for skimmed milk powder has recovered somewhat. This is probably also related to the end of Ramadan. Higher production is expected, and this puts pressure on the price of milk fat. The May closings in the German trade for butter also continue to trend downwards. The spot milk price has reached a new low of €0.275.
The low-fat price makes it less and less interesting to produce fat-reduced cheese in the EU. Let's see how long these offers will be on the market.
And in Switzerland?
In Switzerland, cheese production is still under pressure and there are discussions about increasing the cheese subsidy. This is a logical step, as subsidies for skimmed milk powder have been increased recently. It is certainly the right step; skimmed milk powder will not be the future of the Swiss dairy industry.
Nevertheless, the market share that Swiss cheese is losing now will put pressure on the milk price in Switzerland in the longer term. I hope that the discussion about increasing subsidies for cheese will not take a few years, as it usually does.
Of course, politicians can also ask themselves how much agriculture should cost the Swiss taxpayer. But the more important question would be which products have the most future.
On the question: Why has milk fat crashed?
At Easter, the demand for butter was quite good and prices rose accordingly. Now the demand for skimmed milk powder seems to increase, so additional milk fat meets weaker demand and full stocks.
Our recommendation for Q3:
Securing today's prices in Q3 will be difficult. Most producers expect prices to rise. In other words, those who still have storage capacity should buy today on the sports market and store the goods themselves for Q3.
Offer
A larger manufacturer has an overstock of cheese and is willing to sell it to the highest bidder. If interested, please contact me by 8-5-23.
We are present at the following fairs:
- Tutto Food, Milano 8 -11 May 2023 (as visitor).
- PLMA, Amsterdam 23/24 May 2023 (as visitor)
- Symposium Feines Essen und Trinken, Munich 15/16 June 2023 (as co-exhibitor at Dicke Food)
- International Cheese Award, Stafford GB, 30.6; 1.7. 2023 (as participant)
- Anuga, Cologne 7 - 11 October 2023 (as co-exhibitor with Dicke Food)
Kind regards, Affineur Walo
