Market Report 21-4-23 Trend reversal or calm before the storm?
Cheese remained stable, protein concentrates continued to fall, skimmed milk powder and butter stabilised!
The milk quantities are continuously increasing, the maximum has not yet been reached. The demand for cheese and protein powders is still weak. Nevertheless, prices have stabilised for the most part. Milk fat has given up the gains of the last weeks this week.
I quote from the report of the Süddeutsche Butter- und Käse-Börse e.V. Kempten:
"In Germany, milk deliveries were slightly up again recently. In the 14th week, the dairies recorded 0.2% more milk than in the previous week, according to the ZMB's rapid reporting. The increase compared to the previous year's line has thus increased slightly to 3.2 %. In France, the gap in milk collection compared to the same week last year has recently narrowed to 2.3%."
In hard cheese for grating, a new competitor has emerged from the north. It is a Gouda-like cheese matured for 4 weeks with 30% fat in the dry matter. This cheese is offered at much lower prices than the other cheeses for grating.
And in Switzerland?
In Switzerland, cheese production is still under pressure. The subsidies for skimmed milk powder make it impossible for cheese dairies to produce competitively and it will not be long before individual cheese dairies give up.
The market shares that Swiss cheese is currently losing will put pressure on the milk price in Switzerland in the longer term.
On the question: trend reversal or calm before the storm?
We are all hoping for a trend reversal, but all signs point to a storm. Weak demand meets high production. If the markets hold up until the maximum milk delivery in mid-May, then we can speak of a turnaround before that the balance is very fragile.
Our recommendation for Q3:
There are still about 3 weeks until the maximum milk intake. It is already too late for bargains for Q3. In other words, it is high time to secure at least 50% of the goods for Q3.
Would you like to talk to us and try our cheeses? we will be present at the following fairs:
- Tutto Food, Milano 8 -11 May 2023 (as visitor).
- PLMA, Amsterdam 23/24 May 2023 (as visitor)
- Symposium Feines Essen und Trinken, Munich 15/16 June 2023 (as co-exhibitor with Dicke Food)
- International Cheese Award, Stafford GB, 30.6; 1.7. 2023 (as participant)
- Anuga, Cologne 7 - 11 October 2023 (as co-exhibitor with Dicke Food)
Kind regards, Affineur Walo