Market Report 12-5-23 What's going on in Switzerland?
Protein concentrates continue to fall, spot milk price remains at rock bottom, cheese and skimmed milk powder stable.
Milk fat has recovered further after crashing 10%. The mood at Tuttofood in Milan was negative. Last year's price increases had a very negative impact on sales of Italian cheeses, both domestically and for export. It is now generally expected that prices will soon fall, and all buyers are of the opinion that all products will soon become cheaper.
The market for European cheeses is and remains very stable. Some cheeses with a high added value have seen lower prices, on the other hand cheeses with a low added value have increased slightly. The sellers, especially from Holland, are very nervous and immediately buckle when they feel pressure.
We have heard that buyers are ordering additional goods for June, probably with the intention of delaying possible price increases in Q3. This shows that some buyers expect higher prices in Q3.
To the question: What is going on in Switzerland?
A statement in Foodaktuell's report on Hochdorf's annual report leads to the assumption that a larger dairy trader has large quantities of milk processed into skimmed milk powder at Hochdorf. Because of the high subsidy for skimmed milk powder, this would make economic sense now. The result is that there is too little milk for the cheese dairies, and they continue to lose market share.
We quote from Foodaktuell:
"In order to conserve liquidity, the Food Solutions division made a partial switch to contract orders with milk provided, whereby the milk required for processing is not purchased and resold by Hochdorf but delivered by the customer."
If the production data for March are known by the next report, we will take a closer look at the cheese and milk powder market.
Our recommendation for Q3:
We stick to our forecast of a slight price increase of 2 - 4% and accordingly we stick to our recommendation. Those who still have storage capacity should buy today on the sports market and store the goods for Q3.
We are present at the following fairs:
- PLMA, Amsterdam 23/24 May 2023 (as visitor).
- Symposium Feines Essen und Trinken, Munich 15/16 June 2023 (as co-exhibitor at Dicke Food)
- International Cheese Award, Stafford GB, 30.6; 1.7. 2023 (as participant)
- Anuga, Cologne 7 - 11 October 2023 (as co-exhibitor with Dicke Food)
Kind regards, Affineur Walo