Dairy market: Why is there no trend? Market report from 10-11-23
Milk fat and protein concentrates continue to rise; Cheese, skimmed milk powder up slightly, spot milk price stable.
Milk deliveries in the EU are close to their lowest level. The markets are very balanced. As there is no recognisable trend, few transactions are taking place.
The Global Dairy Auction on 7 November also showed a clear trend. Milk fat and whole milk powder have fallen slightly, while skimmed milk powder and cheese have risen slightly.
And in Switzerland?
In Switzerland, milk volumes are already on the rise. Demand in Switzerland and prices are stable at a high level. However, exports continue to cause concern, especially cheese exports are falling, and most cheese varieties have further reduced their production for November and December.
To the question: Why is there no trend?
This question is easy to answer because the market is in balance. However, the few transactions show that nobody trusts this stable market. Buyers are convinced that prices are falling, and sellers are convinced that prices are rising. As soon as a trend emerges, the market will move very quickly and due to the weak economy, the probability of falling prices is greater than vice versa.
Our forecast for Q1:
It seems unlikely to us that the dairy market will not follow the broader economic trend and therefore we expect prices to fall due to the continued weakness of the economy.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Marca Bologna 16, 17, January 2023
- Salon du Fromage, Paris 25- 27-2-2024, with our own stand
- Cibus Parma 7 - 10 May 2024
- PLMA, Amsterdam 28 - 29 May 2024
- International Cheese Award 27 June 2024
- Sial, Paris 19- 23 October 2024, with own stand
Best regards, Affineur Walo
