Newsletter

Dairy Market: Uptrend Newsletter — February 9, 2026

Fri, 02/06/2026 - 10:46

Overview

The seasonal milk peak hasn’t arrived yet, and prices remain firm. Cheese is seeing higher offers for March; the third consecutive GDT uptick confirms the trend—a cautious turn higher is emerging. As this filters through the market, low buyer inventories could trigger sharp demand. Accordingly, we are shifting Q2 to partial hedging.

Butter & Cream

Butter moved back above €4,000/t for the first time in three weeks—less on fundamentals, more on sentiment, firmer cheese/powders, and GDT tailwinds. Cream is rising faster and closing the gap; seasonally, cream > butter is possible in the near term.

Powders

SMP continues to recover (bullish sentiment/short‑covering), though the duration of this move remains uncertain.

Cheese

Broad‑based price gains driven by sentiment and stronger buying interest with unchanged EU milk fundamentals; mozzarella is tight. Naturally ripened Gouda stays under pressure on seasonally weak demand and high stocks.

Milk Collections (latest weekly reads)

Germany: +0.5% WoW, +6.4% YoY
France: −0.5% WoW, +4.7% YoY

Exports

United States

Cheese exports: 558,912 t (+19.8%) — record
Butter exports: +156.8% — US a net exporter
SMP: −11.3%
WMP: +45.9%

New Zealand

Cheese: +11.6% — record
Butter: +10.1%
WMP: −3.2%

Global Dairy Trade — February 3, 2026

GDT Index: +6.7%
SMP: +10.6% (strongest) WMP: +5.3%
Butter: +8.8% Cheddar: +3.8% Mozzarella: +10.6%
Volume sold: −13.6% (24,034 t)

European Commission Outlook to 2035 (highlights)

After a decade of +0.9% p.a., the EU expects slight declines in milk output for 2024–2035 (~−0.2% p.a.; deliveries ~−0.1% p.a.), while global output grows ~+1.8% p.a. Growth is split regionally: Poland/Eastern Europe still has potential; NL/BE/DK face constraints. Fat/protein growth flattens; domestic demand stays broadly stable (drinking milk ↓, yogurt ↔, cream ↑), with limited impact from plant alternatives. Trade continues to premiumize (export value ~+0.4% p.a.; volume ~−0.2% p.a.). Cheese remains the structural winner (exports ~+0.8% p.a.), butter modestly higher, SMP broadly flat, WMP structurally lower. Farm‑gate prices remain above pre‑2022, below 2021/22 peaks.

Cheese: structural winner (exports ~+0.8% p.a.)
Butter: modest increase (~+0.3% p.a.); SMP: largely stable
WMP: structural decline (~−0.9% p.a.; WMP exports ~−5% over the outlook)
Whey: sideways; EU gains value over volume

Switzerland

Switzerland exported more cheese in 2025, led by lower‑fat categories into Germany and Italy. Traditional AOPs—notably Le Gruyère AOP—lost volume.

CH exports — December 2025 vs. December 2024 (selected)

By country (YTD where stated)

Germany: 4,243 t (+13.5%); YTD 39,413 t (+2.4%)
Italy: 1,067 t (+1.5%); YTD 13,858 t (+13.4%)
France: 836 t (+3.5%); YTD 6,299 t (+4.4%)
BeNeLux: 381 t (+5.5%); YTD 3,351 t (+5.8%)
Europe total: 7,151 t (+10.6%); YTD 68,918 t (+4.6%)
USA: 395 t (−27.1%); YTD 7,172 t (−18.4%)
Non‑Europe total: 944 t (−1.9%); YTD 12,166 t (−9.4%)

By product (Dec / YTD)

Fresh cheese/quark: 1,283.7 t (+29.7%) / 15,157.1 t (+16.4%)
Appenzeller: 456.1 t (+7.5%) / 4,217.6 t (+2.7%)
Raclette: 740.9 t (+5.7%) / 3,228.9 t (−6.1%)
Tête de Moine AOP: 220.5 t (−10.0%) / 1,980.1 t (+2.4%)
Other semi‑hard <45% F.i.T.: 736.3 t (+68.0%) / 6,871.1 t (+20.1%)
Semi‑hard total: 3,030.9 t (+16.5%) / 25,372.7 t (+3.7%)
Emmentaler AOP: 670.7 t (+1.9%) / 7,653.4 t (−3.7%)
Gruyère AOP: 1,141.7 t (−1.2%) / 12,079.2 t (−7.4%)
Switzerland Swiss: 147.7 t (−49.0%) / 3,044.9 t (−13.2%)
Other hard <45% F.i.T.: 450.0 t (−5.5%) / 6,843.5 t (+8.7%)
Hard total: 2,613.3 t (−6.5%) / 31,815.1 t (−4.0%)
Fondue (ready‑to‑use): 679.5 t (+28.5%) / 4,322.0 t (+6.6%)
Processed cheese: 87.3 t (+14.7%) / 768.5 t (+2.3%)
Total cheese exports: 8,095.3 t (+9.0%) / 81,083.6 t (+2.2%)

Forecasts

Q1 2026

Gouda / slicing cheese: stable to slightly firmer
Mozzarella: stable to slightly firmer
Cagliata: stable to slightly firmer
SMP: firmer to moderately higher
Butter: weak (high stocks/production)
WPC80: firm, potentially further gains
WMP: stable to slightly firmer

Q2 2026

Gouda / slicing cheese: slightly stronger
Mozzarella: stable to slightly stronger
Cagliata: stable to slightly stronger
SMP: stable to slightly firmer
Butter: sideways
WPC: stable to slightly firmer
WMP: sideways to slightly firmer

Recommendations

Q1 2026: Close positions broadly — exception: butter (buy in tranches/opportunistically).
Q2 2026: Partially hedge (rolling approach).

Strategic Outlook — “Secure now, benefit later.”

Milk volumes are growing only moderately—an ideal window to lock in supplier relationships for 2027–2028 on competitive terms.

How we support you

For manufacturers: reliable customers, export execution, transparency, receivables, formulations.
For processors: resilient supply chains, market intelligence, product quality & applications, investment & sales support.