Dairy Market Update: Why is the pressure increasing? Newsletter – 11 July 2025
The global political situation is increasingly weighing on European markets. In particular, overproduction in the USA combined with a weak dollar is making exports difficult for European dairies and increasing price pressure on the world market.
Review and Outlook:
- Germany: Milk deliveries remain below the previous year’s level, down 1.5 percent.
- France: 0.8 percent below the previous year's level.
- Liquid raw materials: Quiet markets, low demand.
- Cream: Slightly weaker trend.
- Skimmed milk concentrate: Firmly traded.
- Skimmed milk powder: Hardly any new contracts, prices stable to slightly weaker.
- Whole milk powder: Export and chocolate industry demand remains subdued.
Conclusion:
In almost all product categories, we are currently seeing stable to slightly weaker price trends. The combination of the holiday period, weak export demand and currency effects is leading to a general market slowdown.
Cheese Markets Under Pressure:
- USA: Overcapacity is driving prices down.
- Europe: Good milk availability, but weak exports are weighing on the market.
- Spot market: Unattractive – many producers prefer to secure volumes for Q3 and Q4 early, to avoid losses on the spot market.
- Stock levels: Very mixed – some dairies are relaxed, others are under sales pressure.
Switzerland:
The ongoing strength of the Swiss franc and weak international demand are also increasing pressure in Switzerland – despite the high level of tariff protection, which cushions the worst effects.
However, this protection has a downside: a lack of innovation and strategic adaptation. While the domestic market remains stable, the Swiss dairy industry is losing international competitiveness.
Why is the Pressure Building?
Even though supply and demand in Europe are roughly balanced, export markets remain a concern:
- Aggressive competition from the USA is intensifying the situation.
- Increasing volumes of Eastern European dairy products are reaching Western markets.
- Some dairies are already being forced to make price concessions to maintain sales volumes.
Outlook for Q3 and Q4 2025:
Q3 2025:
- Gouda: Price increases likely not before September.
- Mozzarella: Availability for August should be secured now.
- Cagliata: Seasonally stable demand until end of September, but low milk availability.
- Milk fat: High demand meets falling availability.
- Skimmed milk powder: Stable supply, slightly easing dynamics.
- Whey proteins: Unclear direction, volatile sideways movement.
Q4 2025:
- Gouda: Slight price increases expected.
- Mozzarella: Ongoing price pressure from US exports.
- Cagliata: Increasing pressure, similar to mozzarella.
- Milk fat: Demand remains robust, exports becoming more difficult.
- Skimmed milk powder: Stable to slightly weaker trend.
- Whey proteins: No clear direction, further volatility expected.
Uncertainty remains high – political developments, currency movements, and export competition can turn markets quickly. We recommend:
- Short-term planning and flexibility
- Securing key products in advance
- Avoiding long-term commitments in volatile market segments
Meet Us in Person – Our Trade Fair Presence 2025-26:
- Mondial du Fromage, Tours – 14-16 September 2025
- Anuga, Cologne – 4-8 October 2025
- World Cheese Awards, Bern – 13-15 November 2025
- Winter Fancy Food, San Diego – 11-13 January 2026
- Marca, Bologna – 15-16 January 2026
- Tutto Food Milano – 11-14 May 2026
- Salon du Fromage, Paris – 7-9 June 2026
- SIAL, Paris – 17-21 October 2026
A Taste of Switzerland:
Treat yourself to a genuine Swiss Flower meadow cheese made with raw milk –
not only a true delight, but also a little piece of joy for the soul.
Warm regards,
Affineur Walo
