Dairy Market Update: Where will fat price end? Market-update from 14 March 2025
Spot milk, milk fat, cheese and feed: rising prices, protein concentrates (casein) stable, skimmed milk powder declining.
Market Development: Review and Outlook
Prices continue to rise, with milk proteins stagnating or declining, similar to last year.
Part of the price increase can be explained by weak milk production at the beginning of the year. The following charts show weekly production in France and Germany, clearly indicating that volumes were very low in 2025. The reasons for this are still unknown.
Market Situation in Switzerland
The situation in Switzerland has stabilised. Due to closed borders for milk fat, the trend in Europe is not noticeable here. Provided that market participants act responsibly, seasonal peaks in spring can be managed without major disruptions.
Due to the new debt policy in Europe, the Euro has strengthened, but we do not yet know what the new government in Germany will look like. Depending on the outcome, this trend can quickly reverse.
Other uncertainties remain the bluetongue disease, US trade policy, and the financial situation of some Swiss players.
Where will fat prices end?
Milk fat continues to lead the way, as it did last year. The question is how high can this price go. Butter and cream are very good products, but they are not irreplaceable, except of course in real cheese and on fresh berries.
Outlook for Q2 and Q3 2025
Q2 2025: We expect stable to rising prices for cheese and milk fat, depending on bluetongue disease and weather conditions.
Q3 2025: For the third quarter, we anticipate rising to sharply rising prices for cheese and milk fat.
Do not forget: US trade policy can lead to unexpected disruptions in the dairy market at any time.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025, Hall 1 Stand U07
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025,
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 September 2025, We will have a stand.
- Anuga, Köln 4 – 8. October 2025, with our Partner Dicke Food
- World Cheese Award, 13 – 15. November 2025, Bern, we will have a stand
- Winter Fancy Food, San Diego, 11 – 13 January 2026 with our partner World's Best Cheese.
- Marca, Bologna, 14 – 15 January 2026, I will visit the show
- Salon du Fromage, Paris, 7th – 9th June 2026, with our Stand
Stay informed! Enjoy the exquisite Swiss flower meadow cheese made from raw milk – not only a delight but also healthy and soothing!
Kind regards, Affineur Walo
