Dairy Market Update: Where is the market heading? Newsletter, 27 June 2025
Demand remains subdued – particularly in the cheese sector, where pressure continues to build. Spot milk and milk fat prices remain stable, while casein remains under downward pressure.
Review and Outlook
- In Germany, milk deliveries recovered slightly (+0.2% vs. previous week) but remain 1.7% below last year.
- In France, deliveries were 0.3% above the same week in 2024.
- The cheese market remains quiet. Demand is softening at the end of the quarter, and inventories are building. Most affected: Mozzarella, but also Gouda and Cheddar are trending weaker.
- Emmental remains stable due to limited production capacity, which supports the price level.
Switzerland: Currency Risk and Internal Pressure
The Swiss National Bank has lowered its key interest rate to 0%, which led to a slightly stronger Swiss franc.
For exporters, this means: the coming months are likely to be characterised by a stronger CHF, putting pressure on competitiveness and, ultimately, on the Swiss milk price.
In addition, a structural issue persists:
The country’s largest dairy cooperative continues to pursue a strategy-free price war against the largest dairy processor.
This constellation – strong franc, shrinking export margins, and internal price pressure – is likely to lead to significant market distortions sooner or later.
Where is the market heading?
Towards the end of Q2, milk production increased slightly, while demand remained weak.
For the coming weeks, we expect:
- declining milk volumes,
- stronger demand for fresh dairy products (due to hot weather),
- continued pressure on semi-hard cheeses, while Mozzarella and Cagliata are expected to hold up better.
A key driver will be milk fat prices – if these rise as expected, cheese prices may follow slightly.
However, a weak US dollar and high production volumes in the US continue to weigh on European export prices.
Outlook for Q3 and Q4 2025
Q3 2025
- Gouda: Price increases expected no earlier than September
- Mozzarella: Anyone planning August deliveries should act now. US competition is not yet a concern in Europe – but DFA export pressure may become visible towards year-end
- Cagliata: Secure volumes early – seasonal demand remains strong through September, while milk availability declines
- Milk fat: Ongoing strong demand amid tightening supply
- SMP: Neutral – stable supply, slight downward price tendency
- Whey proteins: Volatile and sideways – no clear trend
Q4 2025
- Gouda: Slight upward price movement expected
- Mozzarella: Sideways trend
- Cagliata: Sideways trend
- Milk fat: Demand remains high, availability low
- SMP: Neutral – stable supply, slight downward trend
- Whey proteins: Volatile and sideways – no clear trend
Geopolitical & Currency Factors
Geopolitical uncertainty persists – markets may react sharply in either direction.
In this environment, it is advisable not to plan too far ahead.
Another uncertainty is the US dollar:
If it continues to weaken, it will increase the pricing pressure on European export products.
Meet us in person – Our Trade Show Presence 2025/26
- Mondial du Fromage, Tours – 14–16 September 2025
- Anuga, Cologne – 4–8 October 2025
- World Cheese Awards, Bern – 13–15 November 2025
- Winter Fancy Food, San Diego – 11–13 January 2026
- Marca, Bologna – 15–16 January 2026
- Tutto Food, Milan – 11–14 May 2026
- Salon du Fromage, Paris – 7–9 June 2026
- SIAL, Paris – 17–21 October 2026
Treat yourself to a real Swiss raw milk fllower meadow cheese
Not only a delight – but also good for the nerves.
Kind regards,
Affineur Walo
