Dairy Market Update: Is this the turning point? Newsletter – 23 May 2025
The positive trend observed last week has continued. Notably, milk fat prices are up by 5%, and spot milk has surged by 12%.
Market Developments: Review and Outlook
Despite rising prices, the overall market picture remains mixed. At the PLMA trade fair, higher prices were reported – yet some new low-price offers also emerged. These came mostly from weaker suppliers with known quality issues, struggling to cope with high milk intake in April and May.
Conclusion: There are attractive offers on the market – but be cautious when it comes to quality.
Global Demand Outpacing Supply
(According to Farmers Weekly, 20 May 2025)
Rabobank analyst Lucas Fuess: "Global demand for dairy is growing faster than supply."
- EU, Australia & New Zealand: Flat or declining production
- USA: Production growth resumes after three stagnant years – forecast: +1.2% in 2025
- 15–20% of US production is destined for export, mainly to Mexico and China
Logistics: The New Uncertainty Factor
USA–China
Tariff pause pushes freight rates up – importers are booking early. The peak season has started. → Rising rates likely to spill over to Europe.
Pakistan
Trade ban with India: backlog at Karachi port, rerouting via Colombo. Carriers charging up to USD 800 in surcharges.
North Sea Ports
Severe delays in Hamburg, Rotterdam and Antwerp – strikes and staff shortages worsening the situation.
Suez Canal
Despite a 15% rebate, many carriers continue to avoid the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks.
Switzerland: Market Still Unsettled
Once again, we see tempting prices from suppliers with quality concerns.
Cremo, Switzerland’s second-largest dairy, has published its 2024 results:
Key Figure Value in CHF million
- Revenue 504
- Gross Margin 141
- Total Costs 138
- EBITDA 2.6
- Depreciation 19
- Net Loss 16.9
- Total Assets 272
- Equity 91
Is this the turning point?
It's still too early to speak of a clear trend. The figures suggest yes – but market feedback says otherwise. The underlying tendency still points to stable or slightly rising prices.
Outlook for Q2 and Q3 2025
Q2 2025
- Gouda: Now is the time to stock up – prices stable with slight upward pressure
- Mozzarella: Good opportunities – wide price range allows selective buying
- Cagliata: Benefit from offers by established suppliers – but beware of excessive discounts
- Milk Fat: Fix contracts – summer demand meets structural shortage
- SMP: Neutral – solid supply allows flexible purchasing
Our Assessment: Slight upward price trend, supported by strong demand – especially for milk fat.
Q3 2025
- Gouda: Further price increases possible – stock early if needed
- Mozzarella: Plan now for August deliveries
- Cagliata: Secure your Q3 volumes
- Milk Fat: Demand remains high while availability declines
- SMP: Neutral – steady supply, no clear price movement
- Whey Proteins: Volatile, but no price spikes in sight
We’re There for You – Our Trade Fair Presence 2025/26
- International Cheese Awards – 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York – 29 June–1 July 2025
- Mondial du Fromage, Tours – 14–16 September 2025
- Anuga, Cologne – 4–8 October 2025
- World Cheese Awards, Bern – 13–15 November 2025
- Winter Fancy Food, San Diego – 11–13 January 2026
- Marca, Bologna – 15–16 January 2026
- Tutto Food Milano – 11–14 May 2026
- Salon du Fromage, Paris – 7–9 June 2026
Analogue Cheese? No, Thank You.
Had enough of palm oil and fake cheese on your pizza?
Treat yourself to a real raw milk Blumenwiesen Cheese from Switzerland. A true pleasure – and a balm for your nerves.
Warm regards,
Affineur Walo
