Dairy Market Update: Turning point in May? Newsletter – 2 May 2025
Prices trended mostly downward over the past week. The EUR/CHF exchange rate remains stable.
Market Overview: Retrospective and Outlook
We are approaching the peak of the seasonal milk production. Fine weather and attractive milk prices are currently boosting volumes and quality. Last year, the final week of April marked a turning point – from there, prices began to climb. Year-on-year, prices are now around 10% higher than in 2024.
Buyers remain uncertain and are placing orders at very short notice. As a result, they are quick to react to minor discounts. If prices begin to rise, many will rush to secure volumes – and this could trigger a sharp price increase.
EU dairy exports are currently subdued, as the US is highly competitive on price. Cheddar in particular is under pressure. Mozzarella, Gouda, Emmental and Cagliata are holding up more steadily.
For May and June through to the summer, we have been advised of largely stable prices. This points to relatively calm markets – though as always, forecasts are uncertain.
The European dairy herd continues to decline – down 3.4% in 2024 alone, to 19.2 million cows (source: USDA/FAS, The Bullvine). For 2025, a further 0.2% drop in milk output to 149.4 million tonnes is expected.
Key drivers include stricter environmental regulations, the bluetongue virus, and structural ageing across the farming population. This is accelerating the market adjustment process: unprofitable dairies are losing access to milk, while stronger players are shifting focus to high-value categories such as cheese, fresh dairy and desserts.
Standardised commodity products (e.g. milk powder) are increasingly relocating to regions with natural cost advantages – such as grass-fed New Zealand.
Market Situation in Switzerland
The situation in Switzerland is currently less balanced. A weak global economy and soft currencies (EUR/USD) continue to weigh on exports of premium Swiss cheese. Financial difficulties at two major dairy companies are also adding to the uncertainty.
Turning point in may?
Stay tuned – we’ll know more by the time of our next newsletter in two weeks. Or visit us at Tutto Food in Milan – we might already have some answers for you there.
Outlook for Q2 and Q3 2025
• Q2 2025: We remain optimistic – stable to slightly rising prices, supported by strong demand for milk fat.
• Q3 2025: The upward trend is likely to continue. Milk fat in particular should see further gains – also driven by seasonal factors.
Cheese prices are partly supported by rising milk fat values, but higher whey protein prices may limit upside potential. Overall, we expect stable to moderately increasing cheese prices.
Forecast modelled using AI based on seasonal patterns and milk production cycles
Meet us at these Fairs
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025, Hall 1 Stand U07
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20–21 May 2025 (visiting)
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2025 – with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et des Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 Sept 2025
- Anuga, Cologne, 4–8 Oct 2025
- World Cheese Awards, Bern, 13–15 Nov 2025
- Winter Fancy Food Show, San Diego, 11–13 Jan 2025 – with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Marca, Bologna, 15–16 Jan 2026
- Salon du Fromage, Paris, 7–9 June 2026
Stay informed – and don’t forget to enjoy an authentic Swiss “Blumenwiese” raw milk cheese. It’s not only a delight, but also good for the soul.
Warm regards, Affineur Walo
