Dairy Market Update: Summer slowdown? Newsletter, 24 July 2025
Export difficulties and high production are weighing on the markets.
Review and Outlook
- In Germany, the seasonal decline in milk supply halted temporarily in week 28: +1.0% compared to the previous week, still –1.0% below last year.
- France: milk intake was –1.2% below the same week in the previous year.
- Cream: firming slightly after a dip the previous week.
- Skimmed milk concentrate: stable at a low level.
The European cheese market remains oversupplied, price-sensitive, and lacking in momentum. Only Emmental shows structural strength. All other categories are under pressure (e.g. Cheddar) or unstable (Mozzarella, Gouda). Export activity remains sluggish. Long-term purchasing interest is increasing but meets hesitant sellers – how long this will last remains to be seen.
Switzerland
The decline in demand for premium AOP cheeses is becoming more noticeable. Le Gruyère Switzerland – the largest PDO organisation with around 30,000 tonnes annual production – has decided to reduce output.
Summer slowdown?
A dip in demand during the summer holidays in Northern Europe is normal – no reason to panic. However, warning signs are increasing:
On the one hand, milk production remains high. On the other, export prospects are deteriorating. In addition to US tariffs, exchange rate developments are creating headwinds. US overproduction and rising tensions with Mexico are compounding the situation: Mexico is actively promoting domestic milk production to reduce reliance on US imports.
This shows: US tariffs will have major long-term consequences for global dairy markets
Many US trading partners are now pursuing self-sufficiency – this encourages production outside the US, makes US exports more difficult, and is likely to push global prices further down. These structural shifts will take time to unfold – but once established, they will be hard to reverse. The long-term impact is likely to weaken the US dairy sector.
Q3 / Q4 2025 – Outlook
Q3 2025
- Gouda: stable, but tending weaker
- Mozzarella: price pressure continues amid high output
- Cagliata: seasonally stable, but with limited upside
- Fat: solid domestic demand, but export difficulties
- SMP: stable in the EU, weak exports
- Whey proteins: volatile, sideways movement
Q4 2025
- Gouda: potential for price declines
- Mozzarella & Cagliata: increasing price pressure
- Fat: steady demand, stagnant export, possible price softening by year-end
- SMP: stable demand with negative outlook, stagnant exports
- Whey products: no clear direction
Recommendation
- Focus on short-term planning
- Secure key products early
- Avoid long-term commitments in volatile segments
Q3 remains weak; Q4 brings more risk than opportunity.
2026 is set to begin under fragile conditions.
Meet Us in Person – Our Trade Fair Presence 2025-26:
- Mondial du Fromage, Tours – 14-16 September 2025
- Anuga, Cologne – 4-8 October 2025
- World Cheese Awards, Bern – 13-15 November 2025
- Winter Fancy Food, San Diego – 11-13 January 2026
- Marca, Bologna – 15-16 January 2026
- Tutto Food Milano – 11-14 May 2026
- Salon du Fromage, Paris – 7-9 June 2026
- SIAL, Paris – 17-21 October 2026
A Taste of Switzerland:
Treat yourself to a genuine Swiss Flower meadow cheese made with raw milk not only a true delight, but also a little piece of joy for the soul.
Warm regards, Affineur Walo
