Dairy Market Update: Still fragile? Newsletter of 24 November 2025
Review and Analysis
After several weeks of recovery, prices eased slightly again this week; however, the 4-week trend remains mildly positive. The exception is milk fat, here the negative trend continues unabated.
Milk Deliveries
- Germany: Mid-November slightly down seasonally (week 45: –0.2% vs. previous week), but +6.9% vs. last year; the seasonal low point is shifting further back.
- France: Most recently +0.6% vs. previous week and +4.7% vs. last year.
- Turkey: September –1.7% vs. last year; Jan–Sep 2025 calendar-adjusted +0.7% vs. the same period last year.
- Brazil: September +3.2% vs. last year; Q3 +10.2%, Jan–Sep +8.0%.
EU-27: Trade
- Cheese exports Jan–Sep slightly above last year (around 1.04 million t).
- Exports of skimmed milk powder +4.4%, whey powder also slightly higher.
- At the same time, imports are clearly up, especially for butter/butter oil (more than doubled), as well as higher imports of cheese and milk powders.
GDT – 18 November 2025
- Further decline: At the second November auction, the Global Dairy Trade index fell for the 7th time in a row.
- Fats under pressure: Butter –7.6% – lowest level since early 2024.
- Cheese and powders weaker:
- Cheddar –2.7%, mozzarella –2.8%. In Europe, mozzarella is starting to recover slightly, but that is not yet visible on GDT.
- Skimmed milk powder –0.6%, whole milk powder –1.9% (3,452 $/t).
- Demand: The ongoing declines are mainly attributed to weak buying interest from China.
Milcobel
Milcobel is cutting the milk price for November more sharply than at any other time this year. The base price for “actual qualities” falls by €6.16 to €39.36/100 kg (1.3 million kg/year, excl. VAT).
Hochwald
- Sale of the yoghurt brands Elinas and Lünebest as well as the Lüneburg plant to UTM (Theo Müller), subject to approval by the competition authorities.
- Order of magnitude: Hochwald with approx. €2 billion in turnover, the UTM/Müller group with around €9.5 billion (including dairy, convenience and logistics).
Switzerland
Milk Deliveries
- Conventional: around +5% vs. last year.
- Organic: in September about +10%, and still clearly above last year in October.
- Main reasons: good forage situation, high forage quality, favourable weather – virtually no feed shortages.
Measures
The Milk Board (BO Milch) is reacting to high butter stocks and rising milk volumes with relief measures via export support for:
- 3,000 t of butter
- 2,000 t of cream
Mooh
Mooh, as the most important Swiss milk collecting cooperative, is communicating openly about the current situation. Volume reductions at its major customers Cremo and Hochdorf are weighing on results. Mooh is responding with the expansion of its own commodity cheese production.
Swiss Cheese Exports (Source: TSM GmbH, Switzerland)
Total exports: Oct 8,710 t (–5.7%) Jan–Oct 64,621 t (+2.0%)
Total imports: Oct 6,401 t (–3.6%) Jan–Oct 67,451 t (+2.4%)
1) Exports by Country
Germany: Oct 4,292 t (+0.5%) Jan–Oct 30,839 t (+2.7%)
France: Oct 647 t (–6.2%) Jan–Oct 4,684 t (+2.2%)
Italy: Oct 1,152 t (–8.5%) Jan–Oct 11,660 t (+14.5%)
USA: Oct 811 t (–54.2%) Jan–Oct 6,094 t (–18.8%)
2) Exports by Category
Fresh cheese Total: Oct 1,220.5 t (–0.2%) Jan–Oct 12,735.8 t (+16.5%)
Cottage Chesse Oct 1,096.0 t (+1.2%) Jan–Oct 11,587.4 t (+15.5%)
Semi-hard cheese Total: Oct 3,039.4 t (–1.9%) Jan–Oct 19,174.1 t (+3.1%)
Appenzeller: Oct 457.0 t (+7.6%) Jan–Oct 3,331.7 t (+0.7%)
Raclette: Oct 740.6 t (–2.4%) Jan–Oct 1,685.0 t (–14.4%)
Low-fat < 45% FDM: Oct 579.7 t (–0.1%) Jan–Oct 5,568.6 t (+21.5%)
Hard cheese Total: Oct 3,144.9 t (–11.6%) Jan–Oct 26,382.7 t (–4.2%)
Gruyère AOP: Oct 1,518.2 t (–5.0%) Jan–Oct 9,863.4 t (–7.7%)
Emmentaler AOP: Oct 727.4 t (–12.6%) Jan–Oct 6,433.8 t (–4.0%)
Low-fat < 45% FDM: Oct 569.0 t (–5.8%) Jan–Oct 5,722.6 t (+9.7%)
Still Fragile?
It is still too early to speak of a solid bottom. Signals pointing to a cautious stabilisation are increasing, but they are offset by several counter-factors (fat market, Chinese demand, global economic environment).
Q4/2025: Trends & Risks
- Gouda: sideways.
- Mozzarella: sideways.
- Cagliata: rather sideways.
- Fat: slight upward trend from a very low level.
- SMP: slight upward trend.
- Whey products:
- WPC80: clearly firmer,
- Sweet whey powder / permeate: stable to slightly firmer.
Year-end business is largely completed – Q4 is likely to move mostly sideways at a low price level.
Q1/2026: Stable to Rising Prices Possible
- Milk output in New Zealand is declining.
- Stock levels in Europe are manageable in many segments.
- Export dynamics will largely depend on the USD exchange rate and milk production in the USA.
Initial indicators still point to stable to slightly rising prices in Q1/2026; the decisive factor will be milk volumes in the coming weeks. Colder weather could help to dampen supply.
Recommendation
Arguments for a cautious bottoming-out are accumulating, but another setback remains possible.
Approach:
- Hedge requirements for Q1–Q2 2026 in tranches (staggered purchases, no all-in).
- Recent price cuts in the Netherlands reflect ongoing scepticism in the market; in some cases, compensation for earlier losses is also likely to play a role.
Feed side:
- China is again importing more soy from the USA – rising compound feed prices are likely to have a supportive effect on milk prices in the medium term.
Meet Us at Upcoming Trade Shows 2025/26
- Winter Fancy Food, San Diego: Jan 11–13 2026
- Marca, Bologna: Jan 15–16 2026
- Tutto Food, Milan: May 11–14 2026
- Salon du Fromage, Paris: Jun 7–9 2026
- Mondial du Fromage, Tours: September 2026
- SIAL, Paris: Oct 17–21 2026
- Anuga, Cologne: Sept 9–13 2027
In Closing: Treat yourself to a genuine Swiss Flower Meadow Cheese made from raw milk – not only a delight for the palate, but a small moment of joy for the soul.
Kind regards, Affineur Walo
