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Dairy Market Update: Stabilizing? Newsletter – October 13, 2025

Dairy Market Analysis from 13-10-25; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 13-10-25

Stronger demand – but still at a low level

Dairy Market Analysis from 13-10-25; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 13-10-25

Review and Analysis

Milk production across Europe remains clearly above last year – particularly in Ireland, Germany, Poland, and Austria.
Domestic consumption in Germany stays solid, while export markets are showing slight improvement, especially for cheese and whey products.

The overall price trend remains downward, although butter is stabilizing. Cheese remains under pressure, while powder prices are mixed.

  • Germany: Milk intake seasonally lower, but +4.2 % year-on-year.
    Production: Butter +11 %, Cheese +5 %, Fresh products +6 %.
  • France: Milk intake +3.8 %, production largely stable.
  • Austria: Milk collection expanding since June, August +6.5 % vs. last year.
  • Ireland: August +6.8 %, Jan–Aug +6.9 %, Fat 4.23 %, Protein 3.72 %.
  • Poland: Milk intake +4.9 %, Butter production +22 %.
  • United Kingdom: Milk production +5 %, Cheese +2 %.
  • USA: Milk volume +3.2 %, Butter +10 %, Cheese +2 %.
  • New Zealand: Season start +1.8 % above last year.

GDT – October 9, 2025

GDT Index: –1.6 %
The decline confirms the ongoing global weakness, driven by higher New Zealand supply and reduced demand for whole milk and butterfat products.

Switzerland

Milk production remains high. With the end of the raclette season, processing is increasingly shifting toward industrial cheese, bringing more attractive offers to the market.

Stabilizing?

Lower prices have made Europe competitive again in export markets.
In the short term, a sideways movement seems likely.
How sustainable this proves will depend on global market trends. Current indicators point toward lower prices from December onward.

Q4 2025 – Trends & Risks

  • Gouda: Sideways
  • Mozzarella: Sideways
  • Cagliata: Price pressure
  • Butterfat: Sideways
  • SMP: Downward trend
  • Whey products: Downward trend

October and November are expected to remain sideways to stable at a low level; a year-end clearance phase is likely to start by late November.

Q1 2026 – Correction Phase Likely

  • Seasonal milk increase adds supply pressure through spring.
  • Exports depend heavily on U.S. and New Zealand price levels.
  • Butter and mozzarella remain vulnerable to further corrections.
  • Whey proteins: After a demand peak in Dec/Jan, activity usually slows – “the air is out.”

Outlook: Q1 2026 is expected to be weaker than Q4 2025, with a longer consolidation phase until Q3 2026.

Recommendations

  • Prefer short-term monthly planning – risks in Q4 and Q1 remain high.
  • Link long-term contracts to market indices wherever possible.

Meet Us at Upcoming Trade Shows 2025/26

  • World Cheese Awards, Bern: Nov 13–15 2025
  • Winter Fancy Food, San Diego: Jan 11–13 2026
  • Marca, Bologna: Jan 15–16 2026
  • Tutto Food, Milan: May 11–14 2026
  • Salon du Fromage, Paris: Jun 7–9 2026
  • Mondial du Fromage, Tours: September 2026
  • SIAL, Paris: Oct 17–21 2026
  • Anuga, Cologne: Sept 9–13 2027

In Closing: Treat yourself to a genuine Swiss Flower Meadow Cheese made from raw milk – not only a delight for the palate, but a small moment of joy for the soul.

Kind regards, Affineur Walo

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