Dairy Market Update: Rising prices on the horizon? Newsletter – 25 April 2025
Prices remained largely stable across Europe over the past week. The only notable change was a slight recovery in the EUR/CHF exchange rate.
Market Development: Review & Outlook
The stagnating prices at the end of April suggest a tight supply of raw milk. However, given that the week followed Easter – a time when many buyers are on holiday – this may simply reflect temporarily subdued purchasing activity.
For May, stable price levels have also been reported, which likewise points to a limited milk supply.
China Is Buying – But for How Long?
Chinese demand is currently strong, particularly for high-quality whey proteins used in sports and infant nutrition, as well as lactose for industrial applications. This trend is Rising prices on the horizon?
largely compensating for the drop in US shipments. However, should the trade dispute be resolved, this could shift quickly.
Market Situation in Switzerland
In contrast to the rest of Europe, the mood in Switzerland remains cautious. A sluggish economy and weak currencies (EUR/USD) are weighing on the export of premium Swiss cheese. Domestic consumption is stable, but leaves little room for volume growth or price increases.
In the short term, the market remains flat. But we may see a clearer picture emerge as early as next week.
Looking ahead to the third quarter, we continue to expect upward price trends – particularly in milk fat. Cheese prices remain closely linked to the development of whey protein prices: if these rise significantly, it will likely limit the upward potential for cheese.
Outlook for Q2 and Q3 2025
Q2 2025: We remain optimistic – stable to slightly rising prices supported by strong demand for milk fat.
Q3 2025: The upward trend is likely to continue. Milk fat in particular is expected to gain further – also due to seasonal factors.
AI-Based Price Forecast
(based on seasonal modelling and milk volume trends)
Product Price May 2025 Price July 2025
Gouda €4.47/kg €4.54/kg
Mozzarella €4.31/kg €4.56/kg
Milk fat €8.71/kg €9.50/kg
SMP €2,402/t €2,450/t
Meet Us at These Fairs
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025, Hall 1 Stand U07
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20–21 May 2025 (visiting)
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2025 – with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et des Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 Sept 2025
- Anuga, Cologne, 4–8 Oct 2025
- World Cheese Awards, Bern, 13–15 Nov 2025
- Winter Fancy Food Show, San Diego, 11–13 Jan 2025 – with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Marca, Bologna, 15–16 Jan 2026
- Salon du Fromage, Paris, 7–9 June 2026
Stay informed – and don’t forget to enjoy an authentic Swiss “Blumenwiese” raw milk cheese. It’s not only a delight, but also good for the soul.
Warm regards,
Affineur Walo
