Dairy Market Update: Price rally on the horizon? Newsletter – 30 May 2025
The positive momentum from the past two weeks has continued. Notably, milk fat (+2.5%) and spot milk (+7.6%) prices have risen significantly. Longer-term trends are also clearly pointing upward. The only exception is Cagliata 15% from Switzerland, which shows a clearly negative trend.
Market Development: Review and Outlook
Germany & France:
Milk volumes remain high, but the seasonal peak appears to be behind us. France is seeing higher volumes than last year, while Germany remains below year-ago levels.
Cheese Market:
Despite high production capacity utilization in both Europe and the U.S., cheese availability remains tight—especially in the run-up to Q3. Strong demand continues to support prices, and seasonal production declines after Q2 suggest further market tightening is likely.
• Cheddar: Stabilized at €4,650/t – pressure from U.S. competitors remains high
• Emmental: €5,100/t – strong demand, full production
• Gouda: €4,350–4,450/t – buyers covering summer volumes
• Mozzarella: Prices surged – spot demand is driving the market
Switzerland: No Sign of Market Relief Yet
Milk production in Switzerland remains high, and not all volumes are being placed easily. This is leading to aggressive pricing from suppliers with quality issues.
Price rally on the horizon??
Thanks to high cheese production, we don’t expect a sudden price spike. However, cream—and thus milk fat—is becoming scarce, which is likely to push prices further.
Overall, price trends continue to show a stable to slightly upward tendency. With the end of the milk flush approaching and summer demand rising, the cheese market could tighten considerably in Q3.
Outlook for Q2 and Q3 2025
Q2 2025
• Gouda: Secure now – stable prices with slight upward pressure
• Mozzarella: Secure now
• Cagliata: Secure now
• Milk fat: Fix prices – summer demand meets structural shortage
• SMP: Neutral – ample supply allows flexible purchasing
Now is the time to secure long-term contracts where possible—especially for export. Buyers hoping for further short-term price drops may be caught off guard.
Q3 2025
• Gouda: Potential for price increases – cover 30–50% now
• Mozzarella: Plan now if you want August deliveries
• Cagliata: Secure volumes for Q3
• Milk fat: High demand continues amid declining availability
• SMP: Neutral – stable supply, no clear price trend
• Whey proteins: Volatile, but no price explosion in sight
Meet Us in Person – Our 2025/26 Trade Fair Presence
• International Cheese Awards
• Summer Fancy Food, New York – 29 June–1 July 2025
• Mondial du Fromage, Tours – 14–16 September 2025
• Anuga, Cologne – 4–8 October 2025
• World Cheese Awards, Bern – 13–15 November 2025
• Winter Fancy Food, San Diego – 11–13 January 2026
• Marca, Bologna – 15–16 January 2026
• Tutto Food Milano – 11–14 May 2026
• Salon du Fromage, Paris – 7–9 June 2026
