Dairy Market Update: Pressure from the USA on Europe? Market analysis from 28 March 2025
Skimmed milk powder prices are rising slightly, protein concentrates (casein) are stable, spot milk, milk fat, cheese, and skimmed milk powder are slightly in the minus.
Market development: Review and outlook
Another week of consolidation with slightly eroding prices. Hopefully, no producer will panic suddenly.
Market situation in Switzerland
The situation in Switzerland remains stable, and as long as market participants act responsibly, it will remain so.
The Euro/CHF exchange rate is currently stable. The USD continues to lose ground, an issue for exporters of AOP cheese with the main product Gruyere to the USA. This will not change as long as politics weaken the USD.
The uncertainties remain the bluetongue disease, the trade policies of the USA, and the financial situation of some Swiss players.
Pressure from the USA on Europe?
Now not directly, but due to the weak USD and simultaneously a strong €, Europe is suddenly no longer competitive. The following chart shows very well how US prices for skimmed milk powder are plummeting.
Was bedeutet das für die Hersteller in Europa? Sie stellen auf Produkte mit der besten Wertschöpfung um. Der folgende Chart zeig, dass dies in erster Linie Käse sind. Damit wird aber noch weniger Butter produziert und die Fettpreise steigen weiter und mit den Fettpreisen natürlich auch die Käsepreise.
What does this mean for producers in Europe? They switch to products with the best added value. The following chart shows that these are primarily cheeses. However, even less butter is produced, and fat prices continue to rise, and with the fat prices, of course, cheese prices also rise.
Outlook for Q2 and Q3 2025
Q2 2025: For cheese and milk fat, we expect stable to rising prices, depending on bluetongue disease and the weather.
Q3 2025: For the third quarter, we expect rising to sharply rising prices for cheese and milk fat.
Not to forget: The trade policies of the USA can lead to unexpected disruptions in the milk market at any time.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025, Hall 1 Stand U07
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025,
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 September 2025, We will have a stand.
- Anuga, Köln 4 – 8. October 2025, with our Partner Dicke Food
- World Cheese Award, 13 – 15. November 2025, Bern, we will have a stand
- Winter Fancy Food, San Diego, 11 – 13 January 2026 with our partner World's Best Cheese.
- Marca, Bologna, 14 – 15 January 2026, I will visit the show
- Salon du Fromage, Paris, 7th – 9th June 2026, with our Stand
Stay informed! Enjoy the exquisite Swiss flower meadow cheese made from raw milk – not only a delight but also healthy and soothing!
Kind regards, Affineur Walo
