Dairy Market Update: Paralysis in the Market? Newsletter – 18 April 2025
Prices were mostly slightly down over the past week. Only the EUR/CHF exchange rate showed a more significant movement.
Market Development: Review & Outlook
The Easter period is traditionally quiet, with many market participants away on holiday. Only milk volumes have risen seasonally – which makes the slight price declines no cause for concern.
Following the recent debate on tariffs, it's worth revisiting the fundamentals – particularly milk production data. EU milk deliveries are approaching their seasonal peak. As the following charts show, volumes in both Germany and France remain at or below 2022 levels.
This low supply level in 2022 led to a significant price rally the following year, as illustrated in the graph below.
A comparable price surge in 2025 is not guaranteed – but it remains a possibility.
Also notable is the higher price volatility in Germany compared to France. This is largely due to the fact that milk prices in France – as in Switzerland – are politically regulated. Interestingly, Germany's more liberal market has achieved higher average milk prices over the past five years. This suggests that a quicker market adjustment may be the more effective long-term strategy.
Market Situation in Switzerland
In contrast to the EU, the outlook in Switzerland appears less favourable. A weakening economy, coupled with a soft euro and even weaker USD, is likely to weigh on the export of premium Swiss cheeses.
Paralysis in the Dairy Market?
Global markets seem to be in a state of paralysis due to disruptive US policies – and the dairy sector is no exception. Despite solid fundamentals, market sentiment is currently more pessimistic than optimistic.
Outlook for Q2 and Q3 2025
- Q2 2025: We remain cautiously optimistic and expect stable to slightly rising prices – driven mainly by a renewed increase in milk fat values.
- Q3 2025: Prices are expected to continue their upward trend – especially for milk fat.
2-Month Forecast – Key Products
Based on current data, the following trends are forecast for the coming two months:
- Gouda 48%: Slight upward trend, forecast: €4.60–4.70/kg
- Cagliata 45% Fit: Upward trend, forecast: €4.70–4.80/kg
- Mozzarella Euroblocks: Moderate growth, forecast: €4.40–4.50/kg
- Milk Fat: Stable at high levels, forecast: €9.60–10.00/kg
- SMP Food (skimmed milk powder): Slight increase, forecast: €2,600–2,650/ton
Meet us at these upcoming trade fairs
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025, Hall 1 Stand U07
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20–21 May 2025, Visitor
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2025, with our partner World’s Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage, Tours (France), 14–16 September 2025
- Anuga, Cologne, 4–8 October 2025
- World Cheese Awards, Bern, 13–15 November 2025
- Winter Fancy Food Show, San Diego, 11–13 January 2025, with World’s Best Cheese
- Marca Bologna, 15–16 January 2026
- Salon du Fromage, Paris, 7–9 June 2026
Stay informed!
Enjoy the exquisite Swiss Flower Meadow cheeses made from raw milk – not just a delight for the palate, but also wholesome and calming.
Warm regards, Affineur Walo
