Skip to main content
Newsletter

Dairy Market Update: Firming? Newsletter — November 10, 2025

Dairy Market Analysis from 10-11-25; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 10-11-25

Review & Analysis

Dairy Market Analysis from 10-11-25; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 10-11-25

Across Europe—excluding milk fat—most prices edged higher. Many buyers still doubt the move’s durability and are ordering cautiously; a few companies have already covered needs through March.

One exception is WPC80, which has firmed noticeably—partly due to new protein toppings at Starbucks.

Inventories remain low, and practically non-existent at the consumer level. Once markets start to price in increases, a swift reaction is likely.

Following FrieslandCampina’s price cut, A-ware, Leerdammer, and Cono followed suit last week. We don’t yet have reliable updates on contract prices elsewhere in Europe; typically, prices across EU countries align quickly.

Internationally, pressure persists: strong milk output in New Zealand and the United States is weighing on sentiment.

These partly conflicting signals make forecasting difficult. Some market participants still see roughly +10% by the end of Q2—but that is possible, not assured.

Milk Production

  • Germany: Week 43 −0.6% w/w; +6.0% y/y
  • France: latest +5.4% y/y; Jan–Aug +4.0%
  • Austria: Sep +8.5% y/y; Jan–Sep +2.4%
  • United Kingdom: Sep +7.8% y/y; Jan–Sep +5.2%
  • Ireland: Sep +6.8% y/y; Jan–Sep +6.8%
  • Poland: Sep +5.3% y/y; Jan–Sep +3.0%
  • USA: Aug +3.2% y/y; Jan–Aug +2.1%
  • New Zealand: Sep +2.5% y/y; season from Jun 1 +2.0%

GDT (Nov 5, 2025)

  • Overall index −2.4% (volume 39,508 t, −2.7%)
  • Mozzarella +1.6% (first rise after nine declines)
  • Cheddar −6.6% (lowest since Sep 2024)
  • Butter −4.3% (lowest since Jan 2024; EU sellers pressuring)
  • AMF −1.9% | SMP flat | WMP −2.7%

Switzerland

No sign yet of the EU easing spilling over into Switzerland.

Firming?

It’s still too early to call a stable floor, but the signs are increasing—even with some countervailing forces.

Q4 2025: Trends & Risks

  • Gouda: sideways
  • Mozzarella: sideways
  • Cagliata: leaning sideways
  • Fat: mild uptrend
  • SMP: mild uptrend
  • Whey proteins: WPC80: clearly firmer; sweet whey powder/permeate: stable to slightly firmer.

Year-end sell-through is largely done—Q4 likely drifts sideways at low levels.

Q1 2026: Stable to Rising Prices Possible

  • NZ milk volumes are easing; European inventories are depleted.
  • Export outlook depends on the USD and US milk production.
  • Early signals point to stable to slightly higher prices in Q1 2026.

Recommendation

Arguments for a cautious floor are building; a renewed pullback remains possible.

Approach: Hedge Q1–Q2 2026 needs in tranches (no all-in). Recent Dutch price cuts show ongoing market skepticism; some players may also be offsetting prior-month losses.

Feed side: China is again importing more US soybeans; higher feed costs are supportive for milk prices in the medium term.

Meet Us at Upcoming Trade Shows 2025/26

  • World Cheese Awards, Bern: Nov 13–15 2025
  • Winter Fancy Food, San Diego: Jan 11–13 2026
  • Marca, Bologna: Jan 15–16 2026
  • Tutto Food, Milan: May 11–14 2026
  • Salon du Fromage, Paris: Jun 7–9 2026
  • Mondial du Fromage, Tours: September 2026
  • SIAL, Paris: Oct 17–21 2026
  • Anuga, Cologne: Sept 9–13 2027

In Closing: Treat yourself to a genuine Swiss Flower Meadow Cheese made from raw milk – not only a delight for the palate, but a small moment of joy for the soul.

Kind regards, Affineur Walo

«Main characters»

Newsletter