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Dairy Market Update: Correction? Newsletter, 1 September 2025

Dairy Market Analysis from 1-9-25; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 1-9-25

Clearly negative trends

Dairy Market Analysis from 1-9-25; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 1-9-25-25

Review and outlook

Milk payout prices from European dairies remain at record levels of over €0.50. At the same time, product prices have been falling over the past 12 months. The gap between high milk payouts and declining product values cannot be sustained for long.

Milk production

  • Germany: Seasonal decline, week 33 –1.1% vs. previous week, but +2.6% year-on-year.
  • France: +3.3% vs. same week last year.
  • Poland: +4.3% in July, Jan–Jul +2.5%.
  • Netherlands: July above previous year for the first time since 2023 (+0.9%).
  • USA: +3.4% in July, +1.9% year-to-date.
  • Argentina: Recovery, July +7.7%, Jan–Jul +11.3%.
  • New Zealand: Seasonal trough, still +6.6% year-on-year.

Products & markets

  • Fresh products: Demand weaker than expected, little impulse after holidays.
  • Butter: Packed butter stable; bulk butter cautious, stable at €6.95–7.15/kg.
  • Cheese: Demand stable, retail and Southern Europe normal; exports to third countries hampered (strong euro, US competition). Processed cheese prices slightly weaker.
  • Skimmed milk powder (SMP): Stable to slightly firmer for food grade; feed grade weaker. Demand from chocolate industry subdued.
  • Whole milk powder (WMP): Quiet market, stable to slightly firmer.
  • Whey powder: Feed grade strongly in demand, prices significantly firmer; food grade stable.

Germany

  • Exports Jan–Jun 2025: Declines in almost all categories, except SMP (+12.3%) and butter oil (+23.9%). Cheese exports –1.5%, mainly weaker to third countries (–7.1%).
  • Imports: Cheese +6.3%, natural yoghurt +26.5%, butter –6.1%.
  • Retail consumption (NielsenIQ, July 2025): Cheese, yoghurt and quark above last year; butter –3.6%, blended fats –7.2%, margarine –1.8%. Organic milk +6.9%.

France

  • Exports: Cheese +2.6%, milk –8.7%, butter –12.5%.
  • Imports: Cheese +2.9%, butter +4.8%. Net butter imports increased.

Results of the three largest Dutch dairy traders (2023/2024)

Hoogwegt

  • World’s largest dairy trader
  • Turnover 2023/24: €3.2 bn
  • Profit rose sharply, but profitability lower than Interfood

Interfood

  • Turnover 2024: €3.1 bn (2023: €3.005 bn)
  • Volume: 1.11 m t (down from 1.16 m t in 2023)
  • Profit 2024: €36.5 m – down, but second-best in company history (2023: €71.5 m)
  • Profitability in recent years higher than Hoogwegt
  • No major internal changes, but environment more complex

Numidia

  • Turnover 2024: €1.1 bn (2023: €914 m)
  • Volume: 442,000 t (+26%)
  • Result: –€13.5 m loss (first in company history; 2023: +€16 m profit)

Switzerland

The Swiss dairy market is among the most heavily regulated worldwide, both publicly and privately. This cushions volatility but also means adjustments often come late and tend to be disruptive.

Currently, high milk production coincides with weak European demand. US tariffs have worsened the situation. The deteriorating outlook in Europe could force another disruptive adjustment. Much depends on whether stakeholders recognise the need for change and cooperate accordingly. We will keep you informed.

Correction?

High milk production and sluggish exports are pushing down spot prices. Whether demand will pick up after summer remains to be seen. So far, there are few signs.

Q3/Q4 2025 – Outlook

Q3 2025 – stabilisation, but fragile

  • Gouda: stable with negative tendency
  • Mozzarella: under pressure from continued high production
  • Cagliata: seasonally stable, limited scope
  • Fat: solid domestic demand, export issues
  • SMP: stable in the EU, weak in export
  • Whey proteins: firming

Likely sideways until end of Q3 – fragile, buyers cautious

Q4 2025 – rising risks

  • Gouda: prices likely to weaken, almost certain from December
  • Mozzarella & Cagliata: increasing downward pressure
  • Fat: demand steady, exports stagnating, prices weaker from late Q4
  • SMP: demand stable with negative bias, exports stagnating
  • Whey products: no clear trend

By November/December, corrections probable, especially in butter and mozzarella

Q1 2026 – correction phase likely

  • Milk volumes rise seasonally, supply pressure grows into spring
  • Exports weak, strong competition from New Zealand and the US
  • Butter and mozzarella particularly vulnerable to price corrections
  • Whey proteins: after seasonal demand peak in Dec/Jan, usually weaker – “the air is out”

Q1 2026 is likely to be weaker than Q4. Markets may leave the high-price phase of 2025 behind and enter a long consolidation phase.

Meet us in Person – Our Trade Fair Presence 2025-26:

  • Mondial du Fromage, Tours – 14-16 September 2025
  • Anuga, Cologne – 4-8 October 2025
  • World Cheese Awards, Bern – 13-15 November 2025
  • Winter Fancy Food, San Diego – 11-13 January 2026
  • Marca, Bologna – 15-16 January 2026
  • Tutto Food Milano – 11-14 May 2026
  • Salon du Fromage, Paris – 7-9 June 2026
  • SIAL, Paris – 17-21 October 2026

A Taste of Switzerland: Treat yourself to a genuine Swiss Flower meadow cheese made with raw milk not only a true delight, but also a little piece of joy for the soul.

Warm regards, Affineur Walo

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