Dairy Market Update: Cooling Off? Newsletter – October 27, 2025

Calm Before the Storm

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Review and Analysis

After already noting signs of stabilization last week, this trend now appears to be taking shape. While slight declines still dominate, some segments are beginning to show the first price increases. At the same time, there are growing signs of a “Christmas clearance sale” developing for November.

Internationally, pressure remains high, particularly due to continued strong production in New Zealand and the USA. This will inevitably be felt in Europe sooner or later.

Cagliata has held up relatively well so far but is now aligning with the broader cheese market in terms of price.

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) – Auction October 21, 2025

Market sentiment remains subdued: The GDT Index fell for the fifth consecutive time (–1.4%). Only AMF (butteroil) recorded a modest gain. The persistent oversupply continues to weigh on milk powder and cheese prices, while butter has stabilized slightly. No sign of a real trend reversal yet.

Milk Production

• Germany: Seasonal decline, still +6.2% above last year
• France: +4.5% above last year
• EU (August): +3.3% vs. last year, with gains in almost all member states
  • DE + 2.1%, NL + 4.9%, FR + 4.0%, PL + 4.9%
• Netherlands: September +6.8% vs. last year
• New Zealand: September +2.5%, current milk year +2.8%

Demand Situation

• EU exports: Slightly higher for cheese and skimmed milk powder; lower for butter and whole milk powder.
• EU imports: Increased significantly, especially for butter and cheese.

Switzerland: Cheese Exports – September 2025 (Source: TSM Treuhand)

Total exports:         September 11,515 t (+11.4%)     Jan–Sep 55,907 t (+3.3%)

Switzerland continues to produce large milk volumes. Exports of traditional cheeses remain under pressure. Only low-fat fresh, semi-hard, and hard cheeses show clear growth, partly compensating for losses in Gruyère, Emmentaler, and Raclette.

Following the August tariff shock, U.S. demand recovered but remains clearly lower on an annual basis.

After the country’s largest cooperative announced a 7% milk price cut for November, further downward adjustments for traditional cheeses are likely. Whether this will stimulate exports depends largely on EU price developments.

1) Exports by Country

• Germany:                                Sep. 3’445 (+5 %)                    Jan–Sep 26’547 (+3 %)
• France;                                   Sep. 605 t (+2 %)                     Jan–Sep 4’035 t (+4 %)
• Italy:                                       Sep. 1’289 t (+24 %)                 Jan–Sep 10’508 t (+18 %)
• USA:                                       Sep. 954 t (+36 %)                    Jan–Sep 5’283 t (−17 %)

2) Exports by Category

Fresh cheese

• Total:                                      Sep. 1’321.5 t (+21 %)              Jan–Sep 11’515.3 t (+18.6 %)
• Cottage cheese:                     Sep. 1’215.7 t (+22.7 %)           Jan–Sep 10’491.4 t (+17.3 %)

Semihard cheese

• Total:                                      Sep. 2’179.9 t (+7.7 %)             Jan–Sep 16’133.5 t (+4.0 %)
• Appenzeller AOP:                   Sep. 369.6 t (+2.8 %)                Jan–Sep 2’874.6 t (−0.4 %)
• Raclette :                                Sep. 348.9 t (−22.2 %)              Jan–Sep 943.9 t (−22.0 %)
• Low Fat < 45 % FiT:                Sep. 495.8 t (+77.7 %)              Jan–Sep 4’988.9 t (+24.6 %)

Hardcheese

• Total:                                      Sep. 2’877.7 t (+0.9 %)             Jan–Sep 23’241.2 t (−3.1 %)
• Gruyère AOP:                         Sep. 1’247.4 t (+18.4 %)           Jan–Sep 8’345.0 t (−8.2 %)
• Emmentaler AOP:                   Sep. 719.8 t (−13.7 %)              Jan–Sep 5’706.3 t (−2.8 %)
• Low Fat < 45 % FiT:                Sep. 529.1 t (−4.7 %)                Jan–Sep 5’082.6 t (+10.2%)

Cooling Off?

The situation in Europe has clearly calmed down – how long it will last remains uncertain. Globally, the signs still point to high production and low prices.
No one knows how quickly the price decline will continue next year – but everyone knows that in this environment stocks must be cleared by Christmas.
This could trigger a sharp rally in November and December.

Q4 2025 – Trends & Risks

• Gouda: Sideways
• Mozzarella: Sideways
• Cagliata: Under pressure
• Fat (Butter/AMF): Stable
• SMP: Negative tendency
• Whey products: Stable

October and November are likely to move sideways at low levels with a slightly negative bias. A year-end clearance phase appears increasingly likely.

Q1 2026 – Correction Phase Expected

• Seasonal milk increase adds supply pressure
• Export outlook depends on U.S. and New Zealand price levels
• Butter and Mozzarella most vulnerable to further corrections
• Whey proteins: Typically weaken after the Dec/Jan peak – “the air goes out.”

Outlook: Q1 2026 will likely be weaker than Q4 2025. A longer consolidation phase until Q3 2026 is probable.

Recommendations

• Prefer short-term monthly planning, as risks in Q4 and Q1 remain high.
• Where possible, link long-term contracts to price indices.
• Hedge raw material exposure proactively, especially for butter and mozzarella.

Meet Us at Upcoming Trade Shows 2025/26

• World Cheese Awards, Bern: Nov 13–15 2025
• Winter Fancy Food, San Diego: Jan 11–13 2026
• Marca, Bologna: Jan 15–16 2026
• Tutto Food, Milan: May 11–14 2026
• Salon du Fromage, Paris: Jun 7–9 2026
• Mondial du Fromage, Tours: September 2026
• SIAL, Paris: Oct 17–21 2026
• Anuga, Cologne: Sept 9–13 2027

In Closing: Treat yourself to a genuine Swiss Flower Meadow Cheese made from raw milk – not only a delight for the palate, but a small moment of joy for the soul.

Kind regards, Affineur Walo