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Dairy Market Update: Buyer’s Market? Newsletter — 22 September 2025

Dairy Market Analysis from 22-9-25; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 22-9-25-3-25

It is fair to speak of an outright price slump.

Dairy Market Analysis from 22-9-25; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 22-9-25

We were at Mondial du Fromage in Tours last week, a welcome change: talking about cheese rather than prices.

Hopes for a stable autumn have evaporated. Sellers are panicking and adjusting prices by up to 5% within hours. Buyers fear overpaying and are ordering only what is strictly necessary. Milk fat, semi-hard cheese and mozzarella are under particularly strong pressure. We were not quoted a single rising price for October.

Drivers: high milk deliveries, weak domestic demand and due to the strong euro weak exports.

Milk deliveries in the EU

  • Germany: seasonal decline setting in; week-on-week –0.3%; vs. same week last year +4.0% (level above the previous two years).
  • France: latest reporting week +3.1% vs. prior year (index); monthly/YTD trends +2.1% / +1.1%.
  • EU-27: July +0.6% vs. prior year; Jan–Jul (calendar-adjusted) +0.2%.

EU external trade (July)

  • Exports: –2.55% (July); YTD –0.99% (volume).
  • Imports: +8.11% (July); YTD +7.65%.

GDT Event 388 — smaller drop than expected

  • Price index –0.8%
  • Cheddar +2.2% (AWP $4,814)
  • SMP –0.3% ($2,615)
  • WMP –0.8% ($3,790)
  • Butter –0.8% ($6,892) | AMF –1.5% ($6,802)
  • Mozzarella –9.6% (AWP $3,860)

Switzerland

In Switzerland, prices are mostly stable, even though milk production far exceeds demand here as well.

Buyer’s market?

Prices have been trending consistently down for weeks, with a recent acceleration. Measures are being taken to brake the trend, especially in cheese. For the time being, however, it remains a buyer’s market.

Q4 2025: trends & risks

  • Gouda: price pressure
  • Mozzarella & cagliata: price pressure
  • Fats: severe price pressure
  • SMP: downward tendency
  • Whey products: downward tendency

October is likely to move sideways to stable at a low level; from November, a year-end sell-off looks likely.

Q1 2026: correction phase likely

  • Milk volumes rise seasonally; supply pressure increases into spring.
  • Exports weak; strong competition from New Zealand and the USA.
  • Butter and mozzarella particularly vulnerable to further price corrections.
  • Whey proteins: typically softer after the Dec/Jan demand peak — momentum fades.

Outlook: Q1 2026 is likely to be weaker than Q4. We expect a longer consolidation phase through Q3 2026.

Recommendation

  • Favour short-term purchasing; risks in Q4 and Q1 are high.
  • Where possible, link long-term contracts to an index.

Meet us in Person – Our Trade Fair Presence 2025-26:

  • Anuga, Cologne – 4-8 October 2025
  • World Cheese Awards, Bern – 13-15 November 2025
  • Winter Fancy Food, San Diego – 11-13 January 2026
  • Marca, Bologna – 15-16 January 2026
  • Tutto Food Milano – 11-14 May 2026
  • Salon du Fromage, Paris – 7-9 June 2026
  • SIAL, Paris – 17-21 October 2026

A Taste of Switzerland: Treat yourself to a genuine Swiss Flower meadow cheese made with raw milk not only a true delight, but also a little piece of joy for the soul.

Warm regards, Affineur Walo

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