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Dairy Market Update: Bottom Formation? Newsletter – November 3, 2025

Dairy Market Analysis from 3-11-25; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 3-11-25

Review and Analysis

Dairy Market Analysis from 3-11-25; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 3-11-25

There are early signs of a market bottom – provided the USD stabilizes and milk production in Europe and the USA does not continue to rise sharply. In several regions, milk volumes are already beginning to decline. Stock levels for most products, especially cheese, are very low both at producers and customers.

This means: as soon as prices start to recover, demand is likely to surge and with it, prices.

However, FrieslandCampina, the largest dairy cooperative in the Netherlands, has sent a clear warning signal: The milk price for November has been reduced by €7/100 kg, from €53 to €46. This is the largest monthly reduction in ten years and indicates that they do not expect a sustainable price stabilization in the short term.

Milk Production (Current Trends)

  • Germany: –0.1% vs. previous week, +6.5% vs. last year
  • France: +5.1% vs. last year
  • Poland: Sept. +5.3%; Jan–Sept +3.0% to 10.49 million tons
  • Australia: Sept. –0.5% to 0.833 million tons; Q1 milk year 25/26: –2.3%
  • Argentina: Sept. +9.9% vs. last year; Jan–Sept 25: +11% to 8.56 million tons

Switzerland:

Milk production remains high. For December, the cream price ex-dairy will be reduced.

Bottom Formation?

Several indicators point to a bottom, yet FrieslandCampina’s drastic price cut shows there are still strong counterforces.
The volatile USD and the uncertainty surrounding U.S. milk output remain key factors.

Q4 2025: Trends & Risks

  • Gouda: Sideways
  • Mozzarella: Sideways
  • Cagliata: Slightly sideways
  • Fat (Butter/Cream): Slight upward trend
  • SMP: Slight upward trend
  • Whey products: Stable

The year-end sales period is largely over – Q4 is expected to move sideways at a low level.

Q1 2026: Stable to Rising Prices Possible

  • Milk volumes in New Zealand are declining.
  • European stocks are nearly depleted.
  • Export potential depends on the USD and U.S. milk production.

Early signals point to stable to slightly rising prices in Q1 2026.

Recommendation

There are good arguments for a cautious market bottom. We therefore recommend securing part of your requirements for Q1–Q2 2026 in the coming weeks but doing so in stages.

FrieslandCampina’s price cut shows that not all market participants believe in a recovery and the market, as we know, is shaped by these expectations.

In addition, China has resumed purchasing soybeans from the U.S., indicating rising feed costs, which in turn supports medium-term stabilization of milk prices.

Meet Us at Upcoming Trade Shows 2025/26

  • World Cheese Awards, Bern: Nov 13–15 2025
  • Winter Fancy Food, San Diego: Jan 11–13 2026
  • Marca, Bologna: Jan 15–16 2026
  • Tutto Food, Milan: May 11–14 2026
  • Salon du Fromage, Paris: Jun 7–9 2026
  • Mondial du Fromage, Tours: September 2026
  • SIAL, Paris: Oct 17–21 2026
  • Anuga, Cologne: Sept 9–13 2027

In Closing: Treat yourself to a genuine Swiss Flower Meadow Cheese made from raw milk – not only a delight for the palate, but a small moment of joy for the soul.

Kind regards, Affineur Walo

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