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Dairy Market Update: Are the bears coming? Newsletter, 18 July 2025

Thu, 07/17/2025 - 11:28

Dairy Market Analysis from 18-7-25; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 18-7-251-5-24

This week’s GDT event delivered a surprisingly positive result, but storm clouds are gathering over Europe.

Dairy Market Analysis from 18-7-24; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 18-7-24

Review and outlook

Germany: Milk deliveries in early July down 1.2% on the previous week and also -1.2% year-on-year, exacerbated by heat.
France: Milk volumes down significantly, -2.7% versus the prior year.
Industrial cream: Prices slightly lower, now stable at a low level.
Skimmed milk concentrate: Previously firm, now slightly weaker, though demand remains solid.
GDT event No. 384: Overall price index up 1.1%, mainly driven by milk powders. Fats stable; cheese prices fell sharply.

Market outlook

Butter: Prices likely to fall further after 2025 contracts conclude. Minor short-term recoveries possible.
SMP: Global demand remains weak; limited upside potential, mostly sideways movements expected.
Cheese: Downward pressure on prices. The USA, Western Europe, and export markets are offering little momentum.

Dairy nutrition market 2032

(Source: dairynews.today, 16 July 2025)

Growth market: +6.4% p.a. – Target: USD 120 billion
Top trends:
- Milk: Remains a global staple
- Yoghurt: Fastest growth (Greek, Skyr, probiotic)
- Cheese: Increasingly functional (e.g. omega-3, probiotics)
- Butter: Revival in natural and culinary segments
- Whey proteins / Specialised products: Strong growth in sports, clinical and infant nutrition

Italy – Growth despite high milk prices

(Source: ISMEA, July 2025)

Europe’s second-largest cheese exporter – despite an average milk price of EUR 0.59/kg
Declining milk production, but strong domestic market (+0.8% volume, +7.7% value Jan–Apr)
Rising imports of raw milk, semi-finished and finished dairy products
Strongest growth: Yoghurt (+5.4%) and cheese (+4.1%)

Switzerland – The balance is shifting

Switzerland depends on cheese exports to stabilise the dairy market. However:

Traditional AOP cheeses are stagnating or losing share in Europe
US growth is at risk due to the weak dollar and new tariffs
Structural disadvantages due to state intervention and inefficient processing
Conclusion: Structural changes are approaching rapidly

Are the bears coming?

The international outlook continues to darken, though markets remain in balance. Many uncertainties remain, and reliable forecasts for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 are currently impossible.

Our recommendation: Buy an umbrella – if things go well, it might turn out to be a parasol.

Q3 / Q4 2025 – Forecast

Q3 2025

Gouda: Possible price increase from September (demand rising, inventories moderate)
Mozzarella: Price pressure likely if high production levels persist
Cagliata: Seasonally stable, but with limited upside
Milk fat: Strong domestic demand, weak exports
SMP: Stable within the EU, but weak export momentum
Whey proteins: Volatile sideways trend