Dairy Market: Trump, rising milk prices? Market Analysis from 8th November 2024
Milk fat prices are rising, skimmed milk powder is experiencing a slight upturn, cheese prices are stable, while protein concentrate (casein) and spot milk prices are both trending downwards.
Overview and current situation
After a challenging October, prices have stabilised this month. The reason for this is the lower-than-expected milk supply due to the Bluetongue virus and a decline in the number of cows. Although the Bluetongue virus is expected to subside over the winter, it will take some time for livestock numbers to recover.
Situation in Switzerland
The market situation in Switzerland remains unchanged: there is an oversupply of milk, leading to low prices. Additionally, there is an increasing number of offers for lower-quality cheese.
The supply for raw milk cheeses is tight, as many dairies have been hesitant to increase production due to high milk prices.
Trump and Rising Milk Prices?
The US elections are likely to influence the dairy markets. The new administration aims to stimulate the American economy, which could lead to lower interest rates and a potential weakening of the USD. This would generally be positive for the export sector. However, tariff barriers could have negative effects. Since the US is already competitive in the dairy markets, the impact on Europe is expected to be minimal. Nonetheless, risks remain if trade conflicts escalate further, especially if the US targets the EU in the cheese market. We hope this does not happen, as it benefits no one in the long run.
Forecast for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
- Q4 2024:
Prices for cheese and proteins are showing stable to rising trends. There may be slight corrections in milk fat prices, but this remains uncertain.
- Q1 2025:
The beginning of the year may be characterised by rising prices. From March onwards, price reductions may occur, which could escalate dramatically due to potential tariffs from China.
We will keep you updated on developments. Thank you for your interest and stay healthy!
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Marca, Bologna, 15–16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food, Las Vegas, 19–21 January 2025, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha, Lyon, 23–27 January 2025
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 septembre 2025
- Anuga, Köln 4.10 – 8.10.2025
Best Wishes, Affineur Walo
