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Dairy Market: Tense! Newsletter – 19 January 2026

Sat, 01/17/2026 - 17:17

Dairy Market Analysis from 19-1-26; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 19-1-26

Dairy Market Analysis from 19-1-26; Milchmarkt Marktanalyse vom 19-1-261-1-25

Review and Analysis

The mood at Marca was positive, and the exchanges signal stable prices. Many market participants now realise that this is the moment to set their strategy for the next potential milk shortage. One thing is clear: the cheapest supplier today may be gone tomorrow. With payout prices differing by more than 10%, it is already visible who is under structural pressure.

Milk Production

Germany: Week 1 / 2026 → +5.9% vs. previous year
France: Week 1 / 2026 → +5.2% vs. previous year
Ireland: Nov 2025 → –2.3% YoY; Jan–Nov cumulative → +5.5%
Poland: Nov 2025 → +5.9%; Jan–Nov cumulative → +3.5%
USA: Oct 2025 → +4.5% vs. previous year

Processing

Germany (Jan–Oct): Butter +8.5%, SMP +10.9%, Cheese +0.3%
Ireland (Jan–Nov): Butter +7.4%
Poland (Jan–Nov): Butter +9.3%, Cheese +3.1%
USA: Record production of butter and cheese; SMP exports down
France (Jan–Oct): Growth in butter and skimmed milk powder

Demand

Germany (Retail)

In 2025, sales of many dairy products increased, especially self-service cheese, quark, yoghurt and butter. Drinking milk grew slightly, organic milk above average, and vegan alternatives also expanded. Early January 2026 saw strong seasonal demand for fresh products and butter, likely boosted by pre-storm stockpiling.

USA (Exports)

Record exports of cheese and butter. Declines in SMP and whey products.
Key buyers: Mexico, South Korea, Japan (cheese); Canada (butter).

China (Imports)

US SMP exports to China fell sharply. Whey products remained stable.

🇨🇭 Switzerland

Switzerland continues to have abundant milk but insufficient processing capacity. Payout prices are falling further. The gap between the highest and lowest milk price exceeds 10% — a clear sign of upcoming structural adjustments.

Tense Market!

Market participants are under pressure to act strategically as the market moves in a potentially disruptive direction — the calm before the storm, or the beginning of a new order.

Forecasts

Q1 2026

Gouda / Semi-hard cheese: stable to slightly firmer
Mozzarella: firm to slightly rising
Cagliata: stable to slightly firmer
SMP: firm to moderately rising
Butter: weak, high stocks and production
Whey proteins (esp. WPC80): firm, partly rising
WMP: stable, little movement

Q2 2026

Gouda / Semi-hard cheese: sideways to slightly weaker
Mozzarella: stable, possibly slightly weaker (offers around €3/kg until June)
Cagliata: sideways, slight downside risk
SMP: stable to slightly firmer
Butter: sideways
Whey proteins: stable, slightly firmer tendency
WMP: sideways

Recommendation

Q2 remains uncertain — stay flexible and avoid full coverage for now.
Q1 can largely be secured; only butter requires caution.

Strategic Outlook 2026

Keep 2026 in focus: milk availability will tighten in 12–18 months, and stable suppliers will become a competitive advantage. Now is the right time to review your supplier portfolio and secure strategic partnerships.

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