Dairy market: Is Switzerland regaining its former strength? Market report from 24-11-23
Milk fat, spot milk price rising; cheese, protein concentrates slightly rising, skimmed milk powder falling.
The cheese market is still characterised by a short supply of Gouda, while other cheeses are readily available. The current price of Gouda is already leading to weaker demand, and many expect lower prices in Q1.
Demand for raw milk is high in the short term, but prices for dairy products are expected to fall in line with demand towards the end of the year.
Will Switzerland regain its former strength?
In Switzerland, the target price for milk will be reduced by 2 centimes to 79 centimes as of 1 January 2024. Will this be enough to regain lost market share?
After analysing the price history, we fear that it will not be enough. As at 24 November, the price of Gouda is roughly where it was in December 21, when the A milk price was 73 centimes, by April 22 the A milk price had risen to 78 centimes and by January 23 to 81 centimes. In January 23, the Gouda price was at the level of November 2020, when the A milk price was 71 centimes.
And internationally?
This week, the index at the Global Dairy Auction remained unchanged. This came as a surprise as higher prices were expected, but demand for the fourth quarter and beyond was weak.
Our forecast for Q1:
Opinions are divided on what will happen in the new year: Some say prices will continue to fall, others believe in a quick recovery. It remains to be seen!
In view of a weakening economy and high inflation, we are forecasting falling demand for the first quarter.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Marca Bologna 16, 17, January 2023
- Salon du Fromage, Paris 25- 27-2-2024, with our own stand
- Cibus Parma 7 - 10 May 2024
- PLMA, Amsterdam 28 - 29 May 2024
- International Cheese Award 27 June 2024
- Sial, Paris 19- 23 October 2024, with own stand
Best regards, Affineur Walo
