Dairy Market: Summer Thunderstorms or Autumn Blues? Market Analysis from 12th July 2024
Cheese, skimmed milk powder declining, protein concentrates, spot milk, milk fat and protein concentrates stable; feed costs rising.
Review and Current Situation
Prices have been falling for three weeks. The significant drop in the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index by 6.9% on 2nd July 2024 has unsettled the markets. The situation in the coming week, particularly on 16th July 2024, will reveal whether this trend continues.
Situation in Switzerland
- Butter Stockpiles: Butter stockpiles in Switzerland continue to grow, currently reaching a record high of 8,000 tonnes.
- Demand: The demand for AOP cheeses remains subdued. Overproduction and distress sales are causing dumping prices, unsettling customers.
- Cheese Imports: Cheese imports are projected to continue rising in 2024. In 2023, 74,266 tonnes of cheese were imported, with Italy, Germany, and France being the main suppliers. The average import price was 7.18 CHF/kg.
- Emmi: Emmi is planning to acquire the French dessert manufacturer "Mademoiselle Desserts" for around 900 million euros. With this move, Emmi aims to strengthen its position in the premium desserts segment and expand its market presence in Europe.
The Question: Summer Thunderstorms or Autumn Blues?
Prices have been falling for several weeks. However, it is still too early to conclude that this is a trend. It seems more like a temporary "summer thunderstorm." If the negative trend in the GDT continues, prices in Europe could also drop in the autumn. We may have more clarity after the next GDT report on 16th July 2024.
Outlook for Q3 and Q4
After a slight price increase of approximately 5% at the beginning of July in Europe, we expect stable prices for the third quarter.
For the fourth quarter, price development will depend on the upcoming GDT reports. Currently, signs point more towards turbulent times.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Sial, Paris, 19–23 October 2024, with our own stand
- Marca, Bologna, 15–16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food Show, Las Vegas, 19–21 January 2025, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha, Lyon, 23–27 January 2025
- Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025
- International Cheese Awards 2025
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 September 2025
Best Wishes, Affineur Walo
