Dairy Market: Quo Vadis? Newsletter – 20 April 2026
Review & Outlook
Third consecutive week of price declines – post‑Easter dip or trend reversal?
Rising milk deliveries in Germany and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty are weighing on market sentiment. The seasonal milk peak is likely to be reached shortly, while public holidays should support demand from Southern Europe. The next GDT event will be decisive: further declines would also put pressure on European markets.
The only clear bright spot remains protein concentrates; substitution towards casein could stimulate demand for cottage cheese and reduced‑fat hard cheeses – benefiting both Grana Padano and Gran Pasta, which offers comparable functional properties at a fraction of the cost.
Milk Deliveries – Week 14
- Germany: +0.2% WoW, +5.6% YoY
- France: –0.5% WoW, +2.0% YoY (third consecutive weekly decline; peak likely reached)
International (February)
- Turkey: Milk deliveries –0.3% YoY, SMP production –22%
- Canada: Milk deliveries broadly stable (February –0.3% YoY), Jan–Feb +0.4%
Powder Markets
Powder markets remain mixed. SMP Food edged up to €2,710/mt but remains below last month’s level, while SMP Feed (€2,580/mt) and WMP (€3,320/mt) continued to decline. Whey powder reached new record levels (Feed €1,510/mt, Food €1,605/mt), as whey solids are increasingly diverted into higher‑value protein streams and drying capacity remains tight.
Protein Market
The WPC80 market is stabilising after the sharp price increases seen in February and March. Buyers are increasingly price‑sensitive, with substitution towards casein and MPC accelerating, while the market continues to expand geographically and structurally. The key question is whether casein substitution will trigger additional demand for cottage cheese and reduced‑fat hard cheeses – and whether Grana Padano and Gran Pasta will benefit.
Cheese
Cheese prices corrected broadly in week 16. Mozzarella recorded the sharpest decline, Gouda and Edam weakened moderately, while Cheddar proved comparatively resilient. Specialty cheeses such as Emmentaler and Maasdam held their levels. Inventories of semi‑hard cheeses remain low, Southern European demand is lively, and rising temperatures should support a recovery in mozzarella demand.
Milkfat Market
Milkfat is again under strong pressure. Butter prices are at multi‑year lows, buyers remain cautious, and producers are selling due to high storage costs. With milk supply continuing to increase – including from the start of the Irish season – further price declines remain likely.
Liquid Markets
Fully utilised drying capacity and high milk inflows are keeping spot milk, skimmed milk concentrate and whey concentrate under significant pressure.
GDT Pulse
Pulse Event 105 delivered weaker results: WMP –1.37%, SMP NZ –2.44%, SMP Arla –2.63%, butter –7.32%. Compared with GDT Event 401 (C2), WMP and NZ‑SMP performed slightly better, while butter, Arla‑SMP and AMF declined. The market remains bearish; the next GDT will be directional.
Switzerland
The seasonal milk peak has not yet been reached, while drying facilities are operating at full capacity.
Strategically, a clear four‑tier value‑creation structure can be identified. The premium segment is defined by raw‑milk flower‑meadow cheese. Below this are standardised, pasteurised cheeses for the broad consumer and export markets. The higher‑value industrial segment is characterised by functional products such as Cagliata and Gran Pasta, positioned as grana‑type cheeses for grating. The volume segment is represented by Dekanter cheese (White Cheese), primarily used for surplus absorption.
Recommendations
Geopolitical uncertainty is increasing volatility; no blanket hedging is recommended at current price levels. The current dip should be used selectively to close volume gaps in Q2/Q3, particularly in cheese.
Q2 2026 – use the current dip
- Gouda / semi‑hard cheeses: stable to firm
- Mozzarella: stable to firm
- Cagliata: stable to firm
- SMP: uncertainty continues to weigh
- Butter: volatile, biased lower (inventory pressure)
- Whey proteins: sideways (WPC80 & WPI in strong demand)
- WMP: stable to firm; potential weakness from September
Q3 2026 – broadly stable
- Gouda / semi‑hard cheeses: stable; possible weakness in September
- Mozzarella: stable; possible weakness in September
- Cagliata: stable
- SMP: slightly firmer; possible weakness in September
- Butter: volatile, biased lower
- Whey proteins: sideways, potentially firmer towards autumn
- WMP: stable; possible weakness in September
Q4 2026
No reliable forecast possible at this stage.
Upside Factors
- Solid demand
- Low inventories
- Strong demand for whey proteins
Risks
- High cow numbers in New Zealand
- Potential USD weakness
- EU milk curve similar to 2025
- Historically declining prices from October onwards
Recommendation
- Q2/Q3: Use the dip, focus on cheese
- Q4: No hedging; downside risk outweighs upside. If required, hedge only small volumes via options or layered strategies.
Strategic Outlook – “Strategy beats opportunism”
Milk volumes in Europe are expected to grow only moderately in 2026, with a potential trend reversal in 2027. Opportunistic buying today risks leaving buyers without reliable suppliers in a tighter market. Securing the supplier base is not an option – it is a strategic necessity.
Strategy beats opportunism: those who secure the right partners today will be supply‑ready in 2027 when others are searching.
Our Trade Fair Presence 2026
- Tutto Food Milano – 11–14 May 2026
- Salon du Fromage, Paris – 7–9 June 2026
- Summer Fancy Food – 28–30 June 2026
- SIAL Paris – 17–21 October 2026
- World Cheese Awards, Córdoba – 12 November 2026
- Marca Bologna – 13–14 January 2027
Treat yourself to a genuine Swiss raw‑milk flower meadow cheese not just a pleasure, but a small piece of joy for the soul.
Warm regards, Affineur Walo
This forecast is based on our market knowledge. It does not constitute a definitive prediction, and we accept no liability should it prove incorrect.
