Dairy Market: Protein Pull Newsletter of 11 May 2026
“He who lets the milk stand too long should not be making cheese.”(From the notebook of Antoine the Cheese Artist, Gruyères, around 1680)
Review & Outlook
The milk flush has been reached or already lies behind us. Germany is approaching last year’s line, and France has already arrived there.
As volumes stabilise, prices are firming broadly still driven primarily by whey proteins. Demand is significantly outstripping supply, and even with new drying capacity coming on stream, no medium-term oversupply is in sight. The price relation between protein and fat continues to shift in favour of proteins.
Although cheese is a high-protein food, it has not seen the same growth as other products. The growing value generated by whey components tends to dampen cheese prices. Whereas whey was once pig feed, that logic is gradually reversing: the by-product is becoming the driver.
Our assessment remains unchanged: Q2 covered, Q3 covered through the end of August, Q4 pending.
Milk deliveries, week 17 (peak reached)
- Germany: –0.2% week-on-week, +4.9% year-on-year.
- France: –0.2% week-on-week, ±0% year-on-year.
March 2026
- UK: +2.3% year-on-year, Q1 +3.4%. Growth significantly weaker than 2025 (avg. +5.3%).
USA — exports (Q1 2026): export growth driven by cheese and fat
- Cheese: +23.2% to 173,529 t.
- Butter: +91.3%.
- SMP: +4.9%.
- Whey products: +9.9% (whey powder +35.6%, WPC –22.3%).
Cheese
- Flower Meadow cheese (raw milk / premium): Prices stable; firmer quotations expected over the coming months, supported by tightening silage-free milk supply.
- Standardised pasteurised cheeses: Market is stabilising on an overall firmer tone, supported by improved demand and stronger buying interest. Mozzarella +4.3% WoW (€3,420), Gouda +1.7% (€3,400), Edam stable at €3,395 — all three nevertheless still below previous-month and previous-year levels. Emmentaler +2.9% to €3,495. The only laggard remains the Cheddar complex (–0.6%).
- Volume cheese / decanter follows the trend, stable to slightly firmer.
- Hi-Lo cheese (high protein / low fat): Stable segment for months. As prices did not follow the broader cheese weakness, they now also remain stable through the recovery. The segment is not yet benefiting sufficiently from the protein pull — a discrepancy that should correct itself over the medium term.
Milk powder
Mixed picture: SMP Food gains (+2.4% WoW), supported by positive market sentiment, while SMP Feed (–0.7%) and WMP (–1.5%) ease slightly. Overall, SMP prices remain well above the previous month and indicate further upside potential. Whey powder weakened for the first time: after 14 weeks of gains, prices are correcting, particularly in the feed segment (–4.5% WoW).
WPC80 continues its strong rally: prices are once again moving sharply higher, with expectations already pointing to €25,000/t. The market remains driven by rising demand against limited capacity. The price level is triggering substitution (MPC, lower protein content, plant-based alternatives), while at the same time new buyers are entering the market. Demand remains structurally strong and is accelerating investment in new capacity (including FrieslandCampina, IGOR/VanDrie). No short-term relief; medium-term, supply expansion is possible.
Liquid and fat markets
Liquid prices are rising despite oversupply: skimmed milk concentrate shows the strongest increase (+€560 to €1,280/t), and raw milk also edges higher. Whey concentrate likewise gains (+€90 to €900/t).
Outlook: the market is expected to rebalance over the coming weeks as milk volumes seasonally decline. Short-term, supply remains high and processing capacity limited.
Milk fat — first signs of stabilisation: cream gains significantly and recovers more strongly than butter, supported by tighter availability and rising demand from the fresh segment. Butter close to the bottom: butter prices edge up, and Q3/Q4 contracts also higher. High inventories and ongoing high production weigh on the market short-term. AMF weaker.
GDT week 19: proteins firm, cheese mixed, fat weak
- Index +1.5%, low trade volume (13,743 t).
- SMP +3.0%, WMP +2.2%.
- Mozzarella +4.7%, Cheddar –3.6%.
- Butter –2.6%, butter oil +1.1%.
The current GDT auction underscores the continued divergence between milk protein and milk fat.
Switzerland
In contrast to Europe, Swiss milk deliveries remain high and above the previous year.
Emmi and Mooh have already published their 2025 figures; Cremo will follow in early June. We will provide a brief comparison at that point. The other major Swiss milk processors — ELSA, Hochdorf, and Züger Frischkäse — do not publish figures.
Recommendations
Unchanged: geopolitics is increasing volatility — no blanket hedging at current levels, but rather selective action by segment.
Q2 2026 should be covered.
- Flower Meadow cheese: stable
- Gouda / sliced cheese: stable–rising
- Mozzarella: stable–rising
- Cagliata: stable–rising
- Hi-Lo cheese: rising
- SMP: uncertainty acts as short-term brake — structurally rather firmer
- Butter: volatile, rather weak (inventories)
- Whey proteins: sideways (WPC80/WPI in strong demand)
- WMP: stable–rising, September weakness possible
Q3 2026 — seasonally quiet
- Flower Meadow cheese: rising into autumn
- Gouda / sliced cheese: stable, September weakness possible
- Mozzarella: stable, September weakness possible
- Cagliata: stable, September weakness possible
- Hi-Lo: stable, slightly firmer
- SMP: slightly firmer, September weakness possible
- Butter: volatile, rather weak
- Whey proteins: sideways, autumn/Christmas potentially firmer
- WMP: stable, September weakness possible
Q4 2026: no forecast possible at this time.
Price drivers
- Flower Meadow cheese seasonality
- Solid demand
- Low inventories
- High demand for whey proteins
Risks
- High cow herd in New Zealand
- Possible USD weakening
- EU milk curve similar to 2025
- Seasonal weakness from October
Strategic Outlook – Strategy Beats Opportunism
European milk volumes are likely to grow only moderately in 2026; a trend reversal in 2027 cannot be ruled out. Those who act opportunistically today risk lacking supply capability tomorrow.
A stable supplier base is not an option — it is a strategic necessity.
Strategy beats opportunism — those who secure the right partners today will be able to deliver in 2027 when others are still searching.
Our Trade Fair Presence 2026
- Tutto Food Milano – 11–14 May 2026
- Salon du Fromage, Paris – 7–9 June 2026
- Summer Fancy Food – 28–30 June 2026
- SIAL Paris – 17–21 October 2026
- World Cheese Awards, Córdoba – 12 November 2026
- Marca Bologna – 13–14 January 2027
Treat yourself to a genuine Swiss Flower Meadow cheese with raw milk — not just a delight, but a small piece of joie de vivre for the soul.
Warm regards, Affineur Walo
This forecast is based on our market knowledge. It does not constitute a definitive prediction, and we accept no liability should it prove incorrect.
