Dairy market: Is now the ideal time to close Q2? Market analysis from 23.2.2024
Milk fat rising sharply, skimmed milk powder, protein concentrates, cheese rising; spot milk price falling.
We are still seeing rising prices everywhere; fat prices in particular are literally exploding. Only the spot milk price is falling. Somehow you can understand the farmers' anger. The markets are still very quiet; most buyers are still waiting in the hope that prices will fall.
And in Switzerland?
Plenty of milk with weak demand: this is the comment of a major milk trader, which we quote:
"Selling or rather processing the entire volume of milk produced in Switzerland remains a challenge with the further increase in incoming volumes. In particular, the milder second half of the month has led to significant increases in delivery volumes. We expect volumes to continue to rise seasonally in the coming weeks."
The consequence of this crisis is that an "industry solution" is being sought. This will mean that, as has been the case for the last 20 years, milk powder production will be supported at the expense of cheese production. If cheese production had been supported in the last two years, Switzerland would perhaps have one less powder plant today and certainly no crisis.
It's a shame that we're not learning!
The question: Is now the ideal time to finalise Q2?
Now is the best time to negotiate a good mid-price for Q2 and Q3. It is possible that one or two lots will be cheaper in Q2, but the increases will come in Q3 at the latest.
Our forecast for Q2 and Q3:
We do not believe that prices will fall, although a correction is possible for milk fat. We expect stable to slightly rising prices for cheese in Q2 and massive price increases in Q3.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Salon du Fromage, Paris, 25-27 February 2024, with our own stand
- Cibus Parma, 7-10 May 2024
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 28 & 29 May 2024
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 23-24 June 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- International Cheese Award, 27 June 2024
- Sial, Paris, 19-23 October 2024, with our own stand
- Marca Bologna, 15-16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food Show, Las Vegas, 19-21 January 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha Lyon, 23-27 January 2024
Best regards,
Affineur Walo
