General News

Dairy Market: Momentum Newsletter – 2 February 2026

Thu, 01/29/2026 - 18:53

Market Overview

The seasonal milk peak has not yet been reached, and prices remain firm. Feedback from the Dubai trade fair also confirms a stable market environment.

Demand appears slightly improved, yet overall market activity remains subdued and characterised by uncertainty. Notably, price gaps between Gouda, Edam and Mozzarella have narrowed significantly in recent weeks.

After several weeks of decline, milk fat markets are recovering slightly, with rapidly rising cream prices supporting the AMF benchmark. Despite this improvement, confidence in the butter market remains low: stock levels are high and milk availability across Northwest Europe remains abundant — meaning a sustained upward trend is unlikely for the time being.

Powder markets continued their positive momentum in Week 5: all milk powders — led by a strong increase in SMP — showed further gains, and the whey market also posted modest improvements. Sentiment has improved thanks to stronger export demand and firmer SMP prices, although the Cereulide contamination issue and global uncertainties continue to dampen confidence.

Milk Production Volumes

Germany: Week 3 +0.3% vs. Week 2, +6.7% year‑on‑year
France: Week 3 +5.8% vs. Week 2

🇨🇭 Switzerland

While market pressure in Europe is gradually easing and necessary reorganisations and consolidation efforts are already underway, the situation in Switzerland is becoming more tense.

Three SVP members of parliament (Freymond, Haab, Dettling) have issued an open letter to Federal Councillor Parmelin demanding an immediate halt to imports of milk and milk raw materials. Their argument: domestic oversupply combined with limited processing capacity — yet imports continue, which they claim is exacerbating price pressure.

Their primary target is the “active refinement traffic” mechanism. They call for a more transparent approval process and tighter rules.

It is noteworthy that this demand does not come from the opposition but from party leadership, suggesting a reactive political move that could risk long‑term value creation. A new imbalance could emerge, potentially encouraging parts of the dairy industry to relocate abroad. And this is not theoretical — even iconic brands such as Toblerone have partially moved production outside Switzerland.

Market pressure in Switzerland will also ease again — the decisive question is whether structural adjustments will be implemented this time or postponed once more.

Emmi Group – Press Release, 29 January 2026

Emmi confirms strong growth momentum, increasing Group revenue in 2025 by 9.1% to CHF 4.75 bn, driven by 4.3% organic growth and successful acquisitions. The Swiss home market and key growth markets such as Brazil, Chile and Mexico delivered particularly strong results, supported by concepts like Emmi Caffè Latte, premium desserts and speciality cheeses. Despite currency headwinds and US tariffs, Emmi confirms its earnings guidance at the lower end of the expected range. With its new nutrition+ platform, Emmi is strengthening its strategic focus on the consumer megatrend of health.

Forecasts

Q1 2026

Gouda / Semi-hard cheese: stable to slightly firmer
Mozzarella: stable to slightly firmer
Cagliata: stable to slightly firmer
SMP: firmer to moderately increasing
Butter: weak; high stocks and strong production
Whey proteins (WPC80): firm, partly increasing further
WMP: stable, little movement

Q2 2026

Gouda / Semi-hard cheese: sideways to slightly weaker
Mozzarella: stable, possibly slightly weaker
Cagliata: sideways, slight downside risk
SMP: stable to slightly firmer
Butter: sideways
Whey proteins: stable to slightly firmer
WMP: sideways

Recommendation

Q1 2026: Close positions broadly — exception: butter.
Q2 2026: Remain flexible and monitor market developments closely.

Strategic Outlook – “Secure now, benefit later.”

Milk volumes are growing only moderately. This is the ideal moment to secure the supplier base for 2027–2028 and strengthen long‑term raw material security.

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