Dairy Market: Interventions in Europe? Market Analysis from March 1, 2024
Butterfat rising, skimmed milk powder, protein concentrates, cheese, and spot milk prices stable, skimmed milk powder slightly weaker.
There are rumors that Polish and German manufacturers have lowered their prices for March by €0.05–€0.10. If this turns out to be true, it would be disastrous for the dairy market. Given the current political situation with farmers' protests, a reduction in milk prices would lead to even more massive protests, and the state would have to intervene in the market.
Salon du Fromage in Paris, February 25–27, 2024
Last week we had a booth at the Salon du Fromage. The fair was a success. There were many traditional manufacturers present from France, Italy, Switzerland, England, Holland, Ireland, etc., along with their interesting raw milk cheese specialties. Such a presence is not matched by any other fair. Consequently, many international and national visitors were present, seeking and certainly finding exciting cheeses.
After visiting this fair, some retailers will have again gained an advantage over their competition.
Unfortunately, the farmers' protests were also palpable and visible at the fair, especially due to a massive police presence. In such moments, one wonders what has become of the democracy that can only control its citizens through force.
And in Switzerland?
In Switzerland, there is already fierce debate over interventions in the market, and they will probably soon be implemented. Such interventions have mostly been disastrous in the past; they delayed crises, which, however, came later, hit harder, and lasted longer.
Regarding the question: Interventions in Europe?
France has already decided on state interventions, Switzerland is developing a model. Protests by farmers continue in Brussels and across Europe. If the milk price starts to slip now, then politics will be challenged. This is one of the reasons why we do not believe in falling milk prices, and due to low stocks, milk could become scarce again this summer. Under these circumstances, we maintain our recommendation to stock up now for Q3.
Our forecast for Q2 and Q3:
We still do not believe that prices will fall sustainably, and we expect stable to slightly increasing prices for cheese in Q2 and stronger price increases in Q3.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Cibus Parma, 7-10 May 2024
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 28 & 29 May 2024
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 23-24 June 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- International Cheese Award, 27 June 2024
- Sial, Paris, 19-23 October 2024, with our own stand
- Marca Bologna, 15-16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food Show, Las Vegas, 19-21 January 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha Lyon, 23-27 January 2024
- Le Mondial du Fromage et produit Laitier a Tours (France) 14-16 Sept. 2025
Best regards,
Affineur Walo
