Dairy Market: How deep is the January dip? Market Analysis from December 15, 2023
Spot milk price plummeted; skim milk powder, milk fat declining, cheese slightly falling, protein concentrates slightly rising.
Another week with decreasing prices. Especially the spot milk price is under strong pressure. The cheese market had slowly risen in the fall and is currently eroding at the same pace. It remains to be hoped that not too much cheese will be produced with the cheap spot milk.
Negative news also came from Holland: The largest producer, FrieslandCampina, has announced it will cut 1,800 jobs, and they will not be paying farmers any bonus this year. For those who have followed the market, this comes as little surprise, as this manufacturer has been the cheapest in the market for a long time. As usual, the farmers and employees will pay the price.
And in Switzerland?
Switzerland continues to suffer from the strong Swiss franc; exports decrease and imports increase. The national banks' interest rate decisions this week have not changed that.
Regarding the question: How deep is the January dip?
The spot milk price, which has dropped by 24% within two weeks, indicates where things might be headed. Cheese prices of €3 or less are possible with this milk.
Our forecast for Q1:
We continue to expect stable prices until the end of January. After that, higher production may meet subdued demand.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Marca Bologna, January 16 and 17 2024
- Winter Fancy Food Show, Las Vegas, January 21-23, 2024, with our partner world’s best cheese
- Salon du Fromage, Paris, February 25 to 27, 2024, with our own booth
- Cibus Parma, May 7 to 10, 2024
- PLMA, Amsterdam, May 28 and 29, 2024
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, June 23 – 24, 2024, with our partner world’s best cheese
- International Cheese Award, June 27, 2024
- Sial, Paris, October 19 to 23, 2024, with our own booth
Best regards, Affineur Walo
