Dairy market: Have we seen the bottom? Market analysis from 16.2.2024
Milk fat, skimmed milk powder, protein concentrates, cheese rising; spot milk price falling.
We are seeing rising prices everywhere; only the spot milk price has fallen. The markets are still very quiet as there is still a lot of uncertainty about the direction of the market. The smallest movements are seen as buy or sell signals, so the market is overreacting.
And in Switzerland?
The exchange rate is somewhat friendlier. As inflation in Switzerland was once again within the SNB's target range at 1.3% in January, there is a possibility that interest rates in Switzerland will be cut earlier than in Europe and even earlier than in the USA.
The question: Have we seen the bottom?
There is certainly light at the end of the tunnel, but milk production is still rising and demand is weak. However, as stocks are still low, there is a possibility that we reached the lowest point last week. Ramadan from 11.3. to 10.4. could still cause some nervousness among skimmed milk powder producers as demand will be weak during this period.
Our forecast for Q2 and Q3:
We are convinced that the next few weeks will be the time to buy for Q2 and Q3, after which there is a risk that the price will rise.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)We will be present at the following trade fairs:
- Salon du Fromage, Paris, 25-27 February 2024, with our own stand
- Cibus Parma, 7-10 May 2024
- PLMA, Amsterdam, 28 & 29 May 2024
- Summer Fancy Food, New York, 23-24 June 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- International Cheese Award, 27 June 2024
- Sial, Paris, 19-23 October 2024, with our own stand
- Marca Bologna, 15-16 January 2025
- Winter Fancy Food Show, Las Vegas, 19-21 January 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese
- Sirha Lyon, 23-27 January 2024
Best regards,
Affineur Walo
