Dairy Market: Already in the January Dip? Market Analysis from December 8, 2023
Butterfat, spot milk price plummeted; skimmed milk powder declining, cheese slightly falling, protein concentrates rising.
After several weeks of rising prices, last week saw an erosion of these gains. Especially butterfat and spot milk price have really plummeted – with losses of 10% and 8% respectively. The cheese market remains fairly stable, it also rose less in recent weeks compared to butterfat and spot milk.
And in Switzerland?
Switzerland is suffering from the strong Swiss franc; exports are declining and imports are increasing. However, I have heard from two major companies in the financial industry that the Swiss National Bank may reduce interest rates as early as this spring, and since the SNB raised interest rates before the ECB, it is quite possible that they will reduce them before the ECB as well. So, there is something like a glimmer of hope at the end of the tunnel.
Regarding the question: Already in the January dip?
It looks like it! This is already the second week with declining prices. The Christmas shopping has been done and demand is slowly decreasing. The questions are: How deep will this January dip be? And will the market recover by February?
Our forecast for Q1:
Prices are expected to remain stable until the end of January. After that, we anticipate higher production meeting subdued demand, which could lead to generally lower prices.
We will be present at the following trade fairs:
• Marca Bologna, January 16 and 17, 2023
• Salon du Fromage, Paris, February 25 to 27, 2024, with our own booth
• Cibus Parma, May 7 to 10, 2024
• PLMA, Amsterdam, May 28 and 29, 2024
• International Cheese Award, June 27, 2024
• Sial, Paris, October 19 to 23, 2024, with our own booth
Best regards, Affineur Walo
